Critics Choice Movie Awards: Oscar preview?

The Critics’ Choice Awards are one of the best barometers for predicting the Oscars. Over their 20-year history, these awards bestowed by the Broadcast Film Critics Assn. have previewed 12 Best Picture Oscar winners as well as 16 Best Director, 13 Best Actor, 11 Best Actress, 11 Supporting Actor and 13 Supporting Actress champs. 

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Last year, these kudos went three for six in the top categories, opting for “Boyhood” and its helmer Richard Linklater over eventual Oscar winner “Birdman” and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu. And they backed “Birdman” star Michael Keaton for Best Actor over Oscar champ Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”). 

With many of the Critics’ Choice Awards categories having six slots, they have an edge at foreseeing the eventual five Oscar nominees. This year, these kudos forecast 30 of the 33 Oscar nominees (91%) in the top six races, missing only the “The Big Short” surge by director Adam McKay and supporting actor Christian Bale as well as the bid by “Room” helmer Lenny Abrahamson. Last year, these awards previewed 26 of the 33 Oscar nominees in the top six categories; that is an accuracy rate of 79%. In 2013, they went 28 for 34 (82%) and in 2012 it was 29 out of 34 (85%).

Below, an analysis of the top six races at this year’s Critics’ Choice Awards (the Oscar nominees are italicized), including handicapping the likelihood of these prizes previewing the eventual winners at the Oscars

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“The Big Short”
“Bridge of Spies”

“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”

“Star Wars” The Force Awakens”

Of this year’s Critics’ Choice nominees, all but “Carol,” “Sicario” and last-minute addition “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” reaped Oscar bids for Best Picture. 

Last year, the BFCA lineup included seven of the eight Best Picture contenders: “Boyhood,” “Birdman” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “The Imitation Game,” “Selma,” “The Theory of Everything” and “Whiplash.” Missing was “American Sniper.” The other three Critics’ Choice nominees were “Gone Girl,” “Nightcrawler” and “Unbroken.”

In 2013, the BFCA previewed eight of the nine Oscar nominees for Best Picture: “American Hustle” “Captain Phillips,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Gravity,” “Her,” “Nebraska,” “12 Years a Slave” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.”The BFCA snubbed “Philomena” in favor of “Inside Llewyn Davis” and “Saving Mr. Banks.” After being snubbed by the three major print critics awards — the Gotham and LA groups and the national society — “12 Years a Slave,” which had won over many regional critics, picked up this prize before going on to take the Oscar. 

In 2012, the BFCA foresaw eight of the the nine Best Picture nominees: “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Django Unchained,” “Les Miserables,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” Silver Linings Playbook,” “Zero Dark Thirty.” They opted for “The Master” and “Moonrise Kingdom” over eventual Oscar contender “Amour.” Both the BFCA and the Oscars went with “Argo.” 

Todd Haynes, “Carol”
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “The Revenant”
Tom McCarthy, “Spotlight”
George Miller, “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Ridley Scott, “The Martian”
Steven Spielberg, “Bridge of Spies”

Despite lavishing rave reviews on Adam McKay’s “The Big Short” and naming it a “Critics’ Choice” pick, the BFCA voters only nominated it in four categories with Oscar equivalents. Likewise for Lenny Abrahamson’s “Room,” which only contends in three such races. While the helmers of both films were snubbed here, they made it in at the Oscars over Haynes, Scott and Spielberg.

Last year, the BFCA snubbed Oscar and DGA nominee Morten Tyldum (“The Imitation Game”) and Oscar contender Bennett Miller, whose film reaped just two bids here. They went instead with Ava DuVernay (“Selma), David Fincher (“Gone Girl”) and Angelina Jolie (“Unbroken”).

In 2013, the BFCA foresaw four of the Best Director Oscar nominees — Alfonso Cuaron (“Gravity”), Steve McQueen (“12 Years a Slave”), David O. Russell (“American Hustle”) and Martin Scorsese (“The Wolf of Wall Street”) — but opted for Paul Greengrass (“Captain Phillips”) and Spike Jonze (“Her”) over eventual Oscar nominee Alexander Payne (“Nebraska”). Cuaron won both races. 

In 2012, the BFCA presaged three of the Best Director Oscar nominees: Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”); David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”); Steven Spielberg (“Lincoln”). Snubbed Ben Affleck won the Critics’ Choice award while Lee took home the Oscar.

Click here to see ups and downs of Oscar races over entire awards season

Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
Matt Damon, “The Martian”

Johnny Depp, “Black Mass”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”

Oscar nominees Cranston, DiCaprio, Fassbender and Redmayne also reaped bids from the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild while Damon was snubbed by SAG. 

Last year, the BFCA gave short shrift to Bradley Cooper (“American Sniper”) and Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher”) opting instead for Ralph Fiennes (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”), Jake Gyllenhaal (“Nightcrawler”) and David Oyelowo (“Selma”). 

In 2013, the Critics’ Choice awards foresaw four of the five Oscar nominees: Christian Bale (“American Hustle“), Bruce Dern (“Nebraska“) Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave“) and Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club“). However it went with Tom Hanks (“Captain Phillips“) and Robert Redford (“All is Lost“) over the late-breaking Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street”). McConaughey won both prizes. 

In 2012, the BFCA foresaw all five of the the eventual Best Actor nominees — Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables”), Joaquin Phoenix (“The Master”) and Denzel Washington (“Flight”) — with Day-Lewis winning both awards. 

Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”

Charlize Theron, “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Oscar nominees Blanchett, Larson and Ronan also earned nominations from the Globes and SAG Awards. Rampling was snubbed by both while Lawrence contended at the Globes on the comedy side. 

Last year, the BFCA foresaw the five Oscar nominees as well as the winner [Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”)]. Only Jennifer Aniston (“Cake”) didn’t make the cut with the academy. 

In 2013, the Critics Choice Best Actress roster included four of the Oscar contenders — Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine“), Sandra Bullock (“Gravity“), Judi Dench (“Philomena“) and Meryl Streep (“August: Osage County“). It went with Brie Larson (“Short Term 12“) and Emma Thompson (“Saving Mr. Banks“) over eventual Oscar nominee Amy Adams (“American Hustle”). Blanchett won both races. 

In 2012, the BFCA predicted the Best Actress lineup at the Oscars — Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour), Quvenzhane Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild) and Naomi Watts (“The Impossible”) — with Chastain winning over the critics but losing the Oscar to Lawrence. 

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Paul Dano, “Love and Mercy”
Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”

Michael Shannon, “99 Homes”
Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”

Of the Oscar nominees, only Rylance earned nominations from both the Globes and SAG. At the former he was beaten by Stallone. And at the latter, the only other Oscar nominee in the running is Bale (who was snubbed here).

Last year, five of the six Critics’ Choice nominees contended at the Oscars and the winner of both races was J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”). Josh Brolin (“Inherent Vice”) was snubbed by the Oscars. 

In 2013, four of the eventual Oscar nominees first reaped Critics’ Choice bids: Barkhad Abdi (“Captain Phillips“), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle“) Michael Fassbender (“12 Years a Slave“) and Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club“). The BFCA went with Daniel Bruhl “(Rush“) and James Gandolfini (“Enough Said“) over Jonah Hill (“The Wolf of Wall Street”). Leto claimed both prizes. 

In 2012, the BFCA foresaw four of the five Oscar nominees — Alan Arkin (“Argo”), Robert De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”) and Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”) — but nominated Javier Bardem (“Skyfall”) and Matthew McConaughey (“Magic Mike”) over eventual Oscar winner Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained“). The BFCA winner was Hoffman. 

Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
Rooney Mara, “Carol”
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”

Helen Mirren, “Trumbo”
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”

Mara, Vikander and Winslet also earned bids at both the Globes and SAG (though Mara and Vikander were up in lead at the Globes). Leigh was also in the running at the Globes while McAdams is up for the SAG prize. 

Last year, the BFCA snubbed Laura Dern (“Wild”), the fifth Oscar contender, opting instead for Jessica Chastain (“A Most Violent Year”) and Tilda Swinton (“Snowpiercer”). Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) won here before claiming the Oscar. 

In 2013, the BFCA previewed four of the Oscar contenders: Jennifer Lawrence (“American Hustle“), Lupita Nyongo (“12 Years a Slave“), Julia Roberts (“August: Osage County“) and June Squibb (“Nebraska“). However, it nominated Scarlett Johansson (“Her“) and Oprah Winfrey (“The Butler“) over Oscar contender Sally Hawkins (“Blue Jasmine”). Nyongo won both awards. 

In 2012, the BFCA got four of the eventual Oscar nominees — Amy Adams (“The Master”);  Sally Field (“Lincoln”); Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”); Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”) — but went with Judi Dench (“Skyfall”) and Ann Dowd (“Compliance”) over eventual Oscar nominee Jacki Weaver (“Silver Linings Playbook”). Hathway won over both the BFCA and the academy. 

Critics’ Choice Movie Awards predictions cheat sheet: ‘Spotlight,’ Leonardo DiCaprio …

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