DGA Awards predictions cliffhanger: Alejandro G. Inarritu (‘The Revenant’) vs. George Miller (‘Mad Max: Fury Road’)

alejandro gonzalez inarritu the revenant george miller mad max fury road dga directors guild awards

For months Ridley Scott (“The Martian“) was the Oscar frontrunner for Best Director. The 78-year-old veteran had lost his three previous bids and now seemed like the perfect opportunity for the academy to honor him. When he was unexpectedly snubbed, it threw this contest into flux not only at the Oscars but at the Directors Guild Awards. Scott was nominated by the guild but now appears to be an underdog. So who will take the DGA prize this Saturday (February 6)?

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Our predictors are split between George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road“), who won the Critics’ Choice Award last month, and Golden Globes champ Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“The Revenant“). But which one has the edge?

According to the eight Expert film journalists we’ve polled for their DGA predictions, Miller is out front. Four of them say he’ll prevail, giving him 11/10 odds: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Brian Truitt (USA Today).

Two more, Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior) and Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), are predicting Inarritu, giving him 3/1 odds.

Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) thinks Ridley Scott will win despite his Oscar snub, giving him 13/2 odds. And Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) is backing Adam McKay (“The Big Short“), giving him 7/1 odds. Don’t forget that Stone was the only expert who predicted that “The Big Short” would win the Producers Guild of America Award for Best Picture.

None of our experts think Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight“) will prevail, resulting in 66/1 odds for this underdog, whose film is still out front to win Best Picture at the Oscars. 

However, our Editors, we who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, think Inarritu is the man to beat. Four of us – Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, O’Neil and I – are predicting him to win back-to-back prizes (he won last year for “Birdman“). Only Rob Licuria is forecasting Miller and Sheehan is backing Scott. None of us are predicting McKay.

For our Top 24 Users, (those two dozen folks who got the highest scores predicting last year’s DGA winners), this race is too close to call. Ten of them say Miller, compared to nine who pick Inarritu. Three more of our top users are betting on McKay, while the last two are holding out hope for Scott. Like our experts, none of our Top 24 Users are predicting McCarthy.

Our group of total Users, who make up Gold Derby’s largest and often savviest bloc of predictors, also favor Miller; almost twice as many pick the “Mad Max” filmmaker over Inarritu.

Click here to see odds and rankings of our Oscar Experts

Who do you think will win on Saturday night? Make your DGA predictions starting with Best Film Director to the right or at the bottom of this post.

You’ll compete to win our contest prize for best picks — a $100 Amazon gift certificate — as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s DGA nominations). Be sure to read our contest rules.

Photo credits: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu by 20th Century Fox; George Miller by Rob Latour/Variety/REX

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