[WATCH] Emmy predictions slugfest: Will Comedy Guest Actress go to Melissa McCarthy, Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, or …

Who will win the Emmy for Best Comedy Guest Actress? After watching the episodes submitted by each of the nominees, my Gold Derby colleagues Marcus James DixonZach Laws, Amanda Spears and I got together via webcam (watch above) to share our thoughts on who we think will win and why.

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The nominees are Christine Baranski (“The Big Bang Theory”) for the episode “The Convergence Convergence,” Tina Fey and Amy Poehler (“Saturday Night Live”) for the episode they co-hosted, Melora Hardin (“Transparent”) for the episode “Flicky-Flicky Thump-Thump,” Melissa McCarthy (“Saturday Night Live”) for the episode she hosted, Laurie Metcalf (“The Big Bang Theory”) for the episode “The Convergence Convergence” and Amy Schumer (“Saturday Night Live”) for the episode she hosted.

I ask the panel who they think the frontrunner is in this very competitive category. Laws goes out on a limb by predicting an upset in this race. “I’m not one hundred percent confident about this, but I am predicting Melora Hardin,” he admits. “When I first saw this episode, I thought she could win with this. She has one scene in this episode … and it’s an explosive scene, so effective. … I think she’s got a real shot at winning this.”

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I agree that Hardin could win because she’s the apple in a cart of oranges, so to speak. “This is one of the funniest categories I have ever had the pleasure of analyzing. I was just laughing all the way through it. With Melora Hardin’s episode, that wasn’t the case,” I note. “But, her range and impact are so off the charts. Maybe it doesn’t necessarily matter that she is not laugh-out-loud, gut-bustingly funny.”

Dixon is not falling for that argument, and says that the choice is a clear one. “I think it’s a slam dunk kind of year for Amy and Tina,” he says. “Amy Poehler has won zero Emmys, so there’s a huge rooting factor for her.”

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Spears agrees, but says we there is a slight problem that might go against Fey and Poehler. “After years of predicting Amy Poehler, I would love for her to win, but I want her to win on her own. This feels like half an Emmy. … They didn’t win for hosting the Globes, they couldn’t pull it off for that, and there might be some people that might think that this could set a bad precedent.” Spears adds that with Baranski and Metcalf both nominated for “The Big Bang Thoery” for the same episode (“The Convergence Convergence”), she could not “really separate Metcalf and Baranski, so maybe they should have been submitted together!”

Laws adds that “this is Fey’s fortieth Emmy nomination, and Amy Poehler has lost 17 times. So there is some residual goodwill here. … This has never happened before where two people have been nominated in one slot.”

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