Experts’ Emmy predictions: Adele will defeat Beyonce & ‘Kennedy Center Honors’ for Best Variety Special

Most of the 2016 Primetime Emmy Awards will be handed out this weekend at a pair of Creative Arts ceremonies to be held on September 10 and September 11. We’re predicting a number of those contests, including Best Variety Special. According to the 14 expert TV journalists we’ve polled for their predictions, “Adele Live in New York City” has the narrow advantage with leading 15/8 odds.

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The five experts betting on Adele to add Emmy to her growing awards collection (she already has 10 Grammys and an Oscar) are Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Kerr Lordygan (Rotten Tomatoes), Robert Rorke (New York Post), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) and Ken Tucker (Yahoo).

But this race looks like it will be a nail-biter. Beyonce‘s acclaimed, VMA-winning visual album “Lemonade” is a close second with odds of 13/5 based on support from four experts: Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Anne Thompson (Indiewire) and Jarett Wieselman (Buzzfeed).

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Right behind those bestselling singers is the annual “Kennedy Center Honors,” which has 7/2 odds and is predicted by three experts: Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby) and Adnan Virk (ESPN). “Kennedy Centor Honors” is the only annual event nominated this year, so it’s the only nominee with a track record we can refer to, and it’s quite a good track record. Though it has lost for the last two years — to “AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Mel Brooks” (2014) and “Saturday Night Live: 40th Anniversary Special” (2015) — it won five consecutive times before that (2009-2013).

Ranked fourth with 6/1 odds is “Late Late Show Carpool Karaoke Prime Time Special,” which is backed by Eric Deggans (NPR) and Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood). None of our experts are predicting the last nominee, “Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo,” even though Schumer is an Emmy darling this year with six total nomination, including bids for “Inside Amy Schumer” and guest-hosting “SNL.”

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The Experts clash somewhat with Gold Derby’s Editors who cover awards year-round. We’re split down the middle with three of us predicting Adele (Sheehan, Chris Beachum and Rob Licuria) and three predicting “Kennedy Center Honors” (O’Neil, Matt Noble and myself), while Marcus James Dixon forecasts “Lemonade.”

But it’s a different story altogether when you consider our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting the 2015 Emmys. They’re throwing their support behind Beyonce, with eight of them predicting “Lemonade,” compared to seven for Adele and another seven for “Kennedy Center Honors.” Our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combine their Emmy predictions from the last two years, also expect a victory for Beyonce: nine of them are betting on Bey, while six say Adele and four say “Kennedy Center.”

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