Experts’ Emmy predictions: ‘Game of Thrones’ has 2-to-5 odds to repeat as Best Drama Series

Game of Thrones” set a couple of new records over the weekend at the 2016 Creative Arts Emmy Awards. It won nine prizes, more than any other program at Creative Arts in a single year. That also put the show’s all-time total of Emmy victories to 35, more than any other drama series in history. So it’s no surprise that it’s also the frontrunner to win Best Drama Series for the second year in a row according to the Expert TV journalists we’ve polled for their predictions.

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Fourteen out of 18 experts are predicting “Game of Thrones,” giving it leading 2/5 odds: Michael Ausiello (TV Line), Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Robert Rorke (New York Post), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Ken Tucker (Yahoo), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Jarett Wieselman (Buzzfeed).

The other four experts think “The Americans” will pull off an upset on its first nomination, placing it second with 7/2 odds: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Eric Deggans (NPR), Kerr Lordygan (Rotten Tomatoes) and Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly). This is the best year yet for the FX spy drama: in addition to its first ever Best Drama bid for its fourth season, it also picked up first-time nominations for lead actors Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell.

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None of our experts are predicting the other five nominees, but based on their overall rankings “Mr. Robot,” the only freshman drama in this lineup, is third with 40/1 odds. The farewell season of “Downton Abbey” is fourth with 66/1 odds. And the remaining nominees are tied with 80/1 odds: fourth-time nominee “House of Cards,” second-time nominee “Better Call Saul” and 2012 champ “Homeland.”

If you consult our Editors, who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, there’s no question at all. The seven of us are unanimous that “Game of Thrones” will win: O’Neil, Sheehan, Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble and myself. Even our Top 24 Users are unanimous. They got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmys, and all of them are betting on “Game of Thrones.”

The All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combine predictions from the last two years, are nearly unanimous. All are predicting “Game of Thrones” except one who is going out on a limb for “Downton Abbey.”

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