Experts’ Emmy predictions: ‘Veep’ is virtually unbeatable with 2-to-11 odds of winning Best Comedy Series

HBO’s “Veep” finally won Best Comedy Series in 2015 on its fourth nomination, ending the five-year winning streak of ABC’s “Modern Family.” This year “Veep” is back, and if anything it’s even stronger, picking up 16 total bids, way up from nine last year. So it’s no surprise that the Expert TV journalists we’ve polled say it will win again.

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Seventeen out of 18 experts are betting on “Veep,” giving it dominant 2/11 odds: Michael Ausiello (TV Line), Robert Bianco (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Eric Deggans (NPR), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Robert Rorke (New York Post), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Ken Tucker (Yahoo), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Jarett Wieselman (Buzzfeed).

Six of “Veep’s” 16 nominations were contested at the Creative Arts Awards this past weekend. It only won one of those, Best Comedy Casting, but last year the casting awards all foretold the winners in top program categories, so perhaps “Veep” won precisely the award it needed.

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One expert, Kerr Lordygan (Rotten Tomatoes), dissents from the majority opinion, opting instead for “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt,” giving it 14/1 odds. “Kimmy Schmidt” only has four nominations this year, down from seven last year, so betting on it is definitely a risk, but risks pay off with huge bragging rights if you’re correct. However, the Netflix comedy isn’t nominated for writing or directing, and no comedy since “Friends” in 2002 has won the top prize without a nomination in at least one of those races.

None of the experts are predicting the other five nominees to win, but based on their overall rankings “Transparent” is third with 40/1 odds. The Amazon streaming series has 10 nominations, including five acting bids and a directing nom for series creator Jill Soloway. Five of its categories were handed out at Creative Arts, and it took home one of them: Best Production Design.

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Next in line with 50/1 odds is “Black-ish,” which is nominated in the top category for the first time. It has just three noms total, but they’re all in top categories: Best Comedy, Best Comedy Actor (Anthony Anderson) and Best Comedy Actress (Tracee Ellis Ross).

Silicon Valley” ranks fifth with 66/1 odds, despite the fact that it’s the second most nominated comedy of the year with 11 bids. That’s also an all-time high nominations total for the HBO laffer. But unfortunately, “Silicon” didn’t win any of its five nominations at Creative Arts this weekend.

Freshman series “Master of None” gets 80/1 odds. All four of its nominations will be decided at the main Emmy telecast on September 18; in addition to Best Comedy, series creator Aziz Ansari is also up for his acting, writing and directing.

Emmy Awards breakdown for Comedy Supporting Actor: Tony Hale, Louie Anderson, Tituss Burgess …

“Modern Family” gets 80/1 odds as well. Just one year after finally relinquishing its Best Comedy Series throne to “Veep” it now appears to be at a severe disadvantage. It has four nominations, its lowest total to date, and it lost both of its Creative Arts races.

Our Editors, who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, agree that “Veep” is out front. We all pick it unanimously: O’Neil, Sheehan, Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble and myself.

Our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmy winners, aren’t quite unanimous, but 22 are predicting “Veep” to win, compared to just one apiece for “Black-ish” and “Modern Family.”

Our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combine their Emmy predictions from the last two years, have a similar perspective. Twenty-two of them expect “Veep” to prevail, while just one is picking “Modern Family.”

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