Emmy Award for Best TV Movie: ‘All the Way’ will win, say all of our experts

The 2016 Emmy nominations in longform categories were dominated by miniseries and anthologies, so the nominees for Best TV Movie must feel fortunate that they have a category all to themselves. While “The People v. O.J. Simpson,” “Fargo” and “The Night Manager” duke it out for Best Limited Series, it looks like “All the Way” has the inside track to be named the year’s best telefilm. Can any of its rivals pull off an upset?

Emmy for Best Limited Series: ‘The People v. O.J. Simpson,’ ‘Fargo’ & ‘Night Manager’ in three-way race

“All the Way” has eight nominations, more than any other TV movie. That includes bids for Best Movie/Mini Actor (Bryan Cranston) and Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actress (Melissa Leo), but perhaps the most important nomination it has is for Best Movie/Mini Directing. No TV movie has won the top prize without a nomination for writing or directing since “Tuesdays with Morrie” in 2000. And because of the dominance of limited series this year, “All the Way” is the only telefilm with a directing nom, and no TV movies at all contend for writing.

So it’s no surprise that all 13 expert TV journalists we’ve polled so far are predicting its victory, giving it leading 2/7 odds: Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Eric Deggans (NPR), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Kerr Lordygan (Rotten Tomatoes), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Robert Rorke (New York Post), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Ken Tucker (Yahoo), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Jarett Wieselman (Buzzfeed).

So is it an up-and-shut case for “All the Way”? Maybe not. “Sherlock” is back for the first time since it won a shocking seven Emmys in 2014, including upsets by lead actor Benedict Cumberbatch, supporting actor Martin Freeman, and writer Steven Moffat. This year the British mystery series contends with the episode “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride,” but it’s only up for six awards total, fewer than it won two years ago. And while Cumberbatch is back in the lead acting race, Freeman is absent in the supporting category, as is Moffat in the writing contest. So our experts give it 14/1 odds to prevail.

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In terms of nominations totals, “Luther” is next in line with three bids. In addition to Best TV Movie, it’s up for Best Movie/Mini Cinematography and Best Movie/Mini Actor for Idris Elba, nominated for the fourth time for his role as the title detective. But “Luther” has yet to win an Emmy in any category, so our experts rule it an underdog with 20/1 odds.

Confirmation” underperformed with just two nominations. Even though it’s a well-reviewed political docudrama like “All the Way,” its only nomination besides Best TV Movie is for Kerry Washington as Best Movie/Mini Actress for playing law professor Anita Hill, who famously came forward as a victim of Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas‘s sexual harassment. But despite its nominations shortfall, it has timely subject matter, the Emmy clout of HBO and a strong acting pedigree (in addition to Washington the film features Wendell Pierce, Greg Kinnear, Jennifer Hudson and Jeffrey Wright). So experts think it’s the closest challenger to “All the Way,” giving it 4/1 odds.

The last nominee in the category is Netflix’s “A Very Murray Christmas” special. It was directed by Oscar-champ Sofia Coppola and stars Bill Murray, who won an Emmy just last year for his supporting role in “Olive Kitteridge,” but its only other nomination is for Best Music Direction. It ranks last in our experts’ predictions with 50/1 odds.

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