Emmy Awards breakdown for Best Movie/Mini Actor: Courtney B. Vance, Bryan Cranston, Benedict Cumberbatch …

Who will win the Emmy for Best Movie/Mini Actor? Gold Derby’s own Amanda Spears, Riley Chow and I got together via webcam recently (watch above) to dish who we think will take the prize and why.

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The nominees are Bryan Cranston (“All the Way”), Benedict Cumberbatch (“Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”), Idris Elba (“Luther”), Cuba Gooding Jr. (“The People v. O.J. Simpson”), Tom Hiddleston (“The Night Manager”), and Courtney B. Vance (“The People v. O.J. Simpson”).

Despite the odds favoring Vance, who stars as attorney Johnnie Cochran in the first installment of the FX anthology series “American Crime Story,” the three of us are betting on six-time Emmy champ Cranston (Drama Actor for “Breaking Bad” in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014; Drama Series for same in 2013, 2014), who reprised his Tony-winning role as President Lyndon B. Johnson for the HBO film.

Spears explains that in the movie/mini categories, “when was the last time you could argue a legit breakthrough performance won?” Although Vance is himself a Tony winner for “Lucky Guy” (Featured Actor in a Play, 2013), “this is the performance that kind of made us all sit up and go, ‘Who is this?’” So she’s picking Cranston because “I think they’re just going to check the name they like the best.”

Find out how ‘The People v. O.J. Simpson’ and ‘All the Way’ will do at the Emmys this year — Click Here

Chow agrees, saying it “seems like the kind of performance where they open the envelope and everybody goes, ‘Ah! Duh! Why didn’t I see that coming?” All signs point to the Oscar-nominated “Trumbo” star because “this is a Tony-winning performance, it has a beloved director (Jay Roach), it’s HBO, so it actually has pedigree behind it too.”

While I’m picking Cranston ahead of Vance as well, I believe the spoiler in this bunch would be Gooding Jr. Not only is he an Oscar-winner for “Jerry Maguire” (Supporting Actor, 1996), but “he’s playing the title character. He is O.J. Simpson.” In the first few episodes, which revolve around the investigation and the Bronco chase, “he is the dominant force.” If voters aren’t watching past that, “they may just assume Cuba is the actual lead of this show.”

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