Only seven films throughout Oscar history have won both Best Actor and Best Actress: “It Happened One Night” (1934), “One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest” (1975), “Network” (1976), “Coming Home” (1978), “On Golden Pond” (1981), “The Silence of the Lambs” (1991) and “As Good As It Gets” (1997). This year three hot contenders are itching to be the eighth film to join that prestigious list: “Fences” with leads Denzel Washington and Viola Davis, “La La Land” starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, and “Loving” with contenders Joel Edgerton and Ruth Negga.
As of this writing, Gold Derby’s 20 Oscar experts derived from major media outlets give Davis the best odds (5/2) to win Best Actress. In “Fences” she plays the wife of a former baseball player (Washington) who now struggles to provide for his family — the same role for which she won the 2010 Tony for Best Actress (Play). Negga is in second place (10/3 odds) for portraying a 1960s black woman who’s not allowed to marry a white man, while Stone is in third (8/1) for her role in the modern-day romantic musical.
For Best Actor, Washington comes in second and has 7/2 odds to win his third Oscar after victories for “Glory” (supporting, 1989) and “Training Day” (lead, 2001). Edgerton is in the experts’ third position (11/2 odds) while Gosling sits in fourth (10/1). They’re all nipping at the heels of Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”), who has leading 13/5 odds to win his first trophy for playing a man who comes home after the death of his brother.
Click here to see how our experts rank contenders according to likelihood of winning in all top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see other categories. Here’s how the Best Actor and Best Actress predictions break down according to our pundits’ odds, and which experts are backing them:
1. Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) – 13/5 odds
Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Ent. Weekly), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Ent. Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)
2. Denzel Washington (“Fences”) – 7/2 odds
Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)
3. Joel Edgerton (“Loving”) – 11/2 odds
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
4. Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”) – 10/1 odds
5. Michael Keaton (“The Founder”) – 10/1 odds
1. Viola Davis (“Fences”) – 5/2 odds
Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen (Ent. Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)
2. Ruth Negga (“Loving”) – 10/3 odds
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Ent. Weekly), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)
3. Emma Stone (“La La Land”) – 8/1 odds
4. Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”) – 12/1 odds
5. Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”) – 14/1 odds
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
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