Grammy for Best Music Video: Will Taylor Swift & Kendrick Lamar’s ‘Bad Blood’ repeat VMA success?

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Taylor Swift and Kendrick Lamar won the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year last summer for “Bad Blood,” and now they compete for Best Music Video at the Grammys this year. Since the VMAs are one of the only other major media events to honor music videos, should we use them as a guide for who will win this Grammy contest?

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Usually no.

The Grammys and the VMAs don’t always see eye-to-eye, so while VMA champs like Madonna‘s “Ray of Light” (1998) and Eminem‘s “Without Me” (2002) have won the Music Video Grammy, several others have been favored by the recording academy despite being mostly or entirely skunked by MTV, like Johnny Cash‘s “God’s Gonna Cut You Down” (2007) Weezer‘s “Pork and Beans” (2008) and the Black Eyed Peas‘ “Boom Boom Pow” (2009).

However, the last five Grammy winners in a row have been major VMA contenders. Lady Gaga‘s “Bad Romance” (2010) and Rihanna and Calvin Harris‘s “We Found Love” (2012) both won VMAs for Video of the Year, while Adele‘s “Rolling in the Deep” (2011) and Pharrell Williams‘s “Happy” (2014) were Video of the Year nominees, and Justin Timberlake and Jay-Z‘s “Suit and Tie” (2013) was the VMAs choice for Best Direction.

If that trend continues, it could be good news for “Bad Blood” or for Lamar’s other nominated video in this category, “Alright,” which was also nominated for Video of the Year at the VMAs and won Best Direction.

But watch out for returning champion Williams, who is nominated again this year for “Freedom.” This song wasn’t as big a hit as his ubiquitous, Oscar-nominated “Happy,” but we shouldn’t underestimate Wiliams, a Grammy darling with 10 career wins to date and four nominations this year, including a couple of songwriting noms for Lamar’s “Alright.” But this is the only nomination for “Freedom,” and the video was skunked at the VMAs.

The last two nominees are first-timers in this race and both are looking for their first Grammy wins in any category. Rapper ASAP Rocky contends for “LSD,” while rock supergroup The Dead Weather are up for “I Feel Love (Every Million Miles),” but while the Dead Weather haven’t won any Grammys together, its individual members have made an impact, especially Jack White, an 11-time Grammy winner with two previous bids for Best Music Video. White’s bandmates Dean Fertita and Jack Lawrence are also past Grammy nominees in other categories for their work with Queens of the Stone Age and the Raconteurs, respectively.

Who do you think will win? Watch all five nominated videos below, then use our drag-and-drop menu below to make your predictions, or click here to make your picks in other top Grammy categories.

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Who do you think will win?

Watch the five nominated videos below, then make your Grammy predictions beginning with Best Music Video to the right or at the bottom of this post. Just log into your Gold Derby account (or you can register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google) and then start casting your votes.

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Photo Credits: Taylor Swift by MediaPunch/REX; Kendrick Lamar by Richard Isaac/REX

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