After the onslaught of nominations from the SAG, Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice awards, let’s take a deep breath and consider what they all mean. Seven lead and seven supporting players reaped bids with all three of these precursor prizes. How likely are they to number among the 20 performers who earn Oscar nominations?
Since the Critics’ Choice Awards introduced nominations in 2001, there have been only 16 instances when a performer nominated for all three of these awards did not go on to contend at the Oscars.
Last year, 11 of the 13 who pulled off this triple play went on to reap Oscar bids; the two that missed out were featured players Helen Mirren (“Trumbo”) and Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”). In 2014, 16 of 18 were nominated for Oscars, with only leads Jake Gyllenhaal (“Nightcrawler”) and Jennifer Aniston (“Cake”) snubbed. In 2013, only three of the 17 performers with bids across the board were overlooked at the Oscars: leads Tom Hanks “Captain Phillips” and Emma Thompson (“Saving Mr. Banks”) and supporting player Daniel Bruhl (“Rush”).
Conversely, 16 Oscar nominations (of the 420 across the four acting categories) went to folks who had not contended for any of these precursor prizes. The most recent two of these were in 2014: lead actor Bradley Cooper (“American Sniper”) and supporting actress Laura Dern (“Wild”). And in 2013, Jonah Hill (“The Wolf of Wall Street”) surprised in Supporting Actor.
So, where are we at this year? Let’s take a closer look at each of the acting races by examining who has run the board so far and who could still pull off a surprise on Oscar nominations morning.
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” (Drama at Globes)
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” (Drama at Globes)
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” (Comedy/Musical at Globes)
Denzel Washington, “Fences” (Drama at Globes)
These are the top four contenders on our Oscar chart; in fifth is Joel Edgerton (“Loving”) who reaped Globe and Critics’ Choice bids but was snubbed by SAG in favor of Viggo Mortensen (“Captain Fantastic”).
Amy Adams, “Arrival” (Drama at Globes)
Natalie Portman, “Jackie” (Drama at Globes)
Emma Stone, “La La Land” (Comedy/Musical at Globes)
All three make our top five Oscar contenders, as do Ruth Negga (“Loving”) and Annette Bening (“2oth Century Women”) who both earned Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations but were snubbed by SAG in favor of Emily Blunt (“The Girl on the Train”) and Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
This trio sits in first, third and fourth place on our Oscar chart. Missing are second-place contender Lucas Hedges (“Manchester by the Sea”) who was snubbed by the Globes and fifth-place contender Michael Shannon who reaped only a Critics’ Choice bid. Watch for Hugh Grant (“Florence Foster Jenkins”), currently in seventh place, to rise up the ranks based on his SAG and Globe nominations.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
All four figure among the top five on our Oscar chart, which is rounded out by Greta Gerwig (“20th Century Women) who earned only a Critics’ Choice nomination. Octavia Spencer, who sits in seventh place, could move into contention after her SAG and Globe nominations.
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.