Indie Spirit Awards predictions: Idris Elba (‘Beasts of No Nation’) leads the way for Best Supporting Actor

idris elba beasts of no nation independent spirit awards best supporting male best supporting actor

The Oscars snubbed Idris Elba‘s supporting turn in “Beasts of No Nation,” which was part of what inspired this year’s #OscarsSoWhite protests for the second year in a row. But Elba got his revenge by winning Best Supporting Actor at the SAG Awards, and now he’s way out front to win the Spirit Award according to our combined predictions.

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We’ve polled Expert film journalists, Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Spirit winners and more than 1,000 total Users who make up our largest and often savviest bloc of predictors.

All 12 experts predicting the Spirit Awards say it will be Elba, giving him 1/10 odds: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

Our editors are also unanimous. All six of us predict Elba will prevail: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, O’Neil, Sheehan and myself.

But our Top 24 Users aren’t quite so sure. While 19 of them are predicting Elba, three think he will be upset by Paul Dano (“Love and Mercy“) and two say it will be Michael Shannon (“99 Homes“). Like Elba, Dano and Shannon earned multiple nominations during the awards season (including Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes) but missed the cut at the Oscars. However, Elba is the only Spirit nominee whose film is also up for Best Picture, which may indicate stronger support.

None of our experts, editors or top users are predicting the remaining two nominees: Kevin Corrigan (“Results“) or Richard Jenkins (“Bone Tomahawk“).

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Who do you think will win?

Make your Spirit Award predictions beginning with Best Supporting Actor to the right or below. Just log into your Gold Derby account (or you can register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google) and then start casting your votes.

You’ll compete to win a $100 Amazon gift certificate as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Spirit winners). Be sure to read our contest rules.

Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts, just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice.

Photo Credit: “Beasts of No Nation” by Netflix

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