There’s a battle brewing in the MTV Movie Awards race for Best Female Performance. Daisy Ridley (“Star Wars: The Force Awakens“) will win according to the combined predictions of our Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s winners and the hundreds of total Users who make up our largest and often savviest bloc of predictors. But she faces a strong challenge from another action heroine: Charlize Theron in “Mad Max: Fury Road.”
Our Top 24 are split between the two actresses. Eleven of them are betting on Ridley, giving her 13/10 odds, but 10 others favor Theron, giving her 3/2 odds. Neither woman has won at the MTV Movie Awards before, but Theron was previously nominated twice for “Monster” in 2004.
Ridley and Theron both have multiple nominations this year, and they compete against each other in two of those other contests: Best Hero and Best Fight. Ridley has a fourth bid, for Best Breakthrough Performance, and “Star Wars” has by far more nominations at this event — 11 compared to just four for “Mad Max” — but the viewers who decide the winners weren’t the ones who picked the nominees, so there may be more support for “Mad Max” than we realize.
We also shouldn’t rule out Jennifer Lawrence. She’s nominated in this race for “Joy” and has two additional nominations this year for “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2.” She has won six MTV Movie Awards to date, and the last three of our top users favor her to prevail again, giving her 13/2 odds.
But our editors aren’t as divided as our top users. In fact, we’re unanimous: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria and I are all betting on “Star Wars” breakout Ridley.
None of our editors or top users are predicting the other three nominees. Could we be underestimating them? Anna Kendrick is nominated for “Pitch Perfect 2“; she actually won both of her previous MTV noms: Best Breakout Star for her Oscar-nominated turn in “Up in the Air” (2010) and Best Musical Moment along with her co-stars in the first “Pitch Perfect” (2013).
Recent Oscar-champ Alicia Vikander contends at these awards for her role in the sci-fi thriller “Ex Machina,” and Morena Baccarin rounds out the category for her performance in “Deadpool.” Both women are rookies at these awards, but Baccarin has one other nomination this year: Best Kiss with Ryan Reynolds.
Make your MTV Movie Awards Awards predictions starting with Best Female Performance to the right or at the bottom of this post.
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Photo credits: “Star Wars” by Walt Disney Pictures; “Mad Max” by Warner Bros.