MTV VMAs predictions by artist: Beyonce & Adele will win 4 each, Drake will take 3

Beyonce and Adele are the top nominees at the 2016 MTV Video Music Awards, and they’re also likely to be the top winners according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby’s Editors, who cover awards year-round; our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s VMAs; and the hundreds of total Users who make up our largest and often savviest bloc of predictors.

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Beyonce is forecast to win four awards out of her 11 nominations, including Video of the Year for “Formation,” which struck a chord with its depictions of racial injustice. It would be her second victory in the top category, following “Single Ladies” in 2009. She’ll also win Best Choreography, Best Editing and Breakthrough Long Form Video for her entire visual album “Lemonade” (which also contends for multiple Emmys).

Adele won’t win the top prize, but she’s also forecast to prevail four times (out of eight nominations), all for “Hello”: Best Female Video, Best Direction, Best Art Direction and Best Cinematography.

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Next up is Drake, who has five nominations and is expected to win three: Best Male Video and Best Hip-Hop Video for “Hotline Bling” and Best Collaboration with Rihanna for “Work.”

All other winners are expected to claim one prize apiece: Justin Bieber (Best Pop Video, “Sorry”) Fall Out Boy and Demi Lovato (Best Rock Video, “Irresistible”), Calvin Harris and Disciples (Best Electronic Video, “How Deep is Your Love”), DNCE (Best New Artist) and Coldplay (Best Visual Effects, “Up&Up”).

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Below, see our complete VMA predictions by artist. And click here for our predictions by category.

Video of the Year — “Formation”
Breakthrough Long Form Video — “Lemonade”
Best Choreography — “Formation”
Best Editing — “Formation”

Best Female Video — “Hello”
Best Direction — “Hello”
Best Art Direction — “Hello”
Best Cinematography — “Hello”

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Best Male Video — “Hotline Bling”
Best Collaboration — “Work”
Best Hip Hop Video — “Hotline Bling”

Best Pop Video — “Sorry”

Best Visual Effects — “Up&Up”

Best New Artist

[WATCH] MTV VMAs slugfest: Professional Categories nominees include Beyonce, Adele, David Bowie & FKA Twigs

Best Rock Video — “Irresistible”

Best Electonic Video — “How Deep is Your Love”

Best Collaboration — “Work”

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