The five women we think will be nominated for Best Actress at the Oscars on Thursday (January 14) are listed below in order of their racetrack odds, with the predicted winner, Brie Larson (“Room“), noted in gold. These official odds are derived from the predictions of 25 Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
Three out of four predictions groups — experts, users and the Top 24 Users — agree on this lineup, but editors differ slightly, projecting that Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl“) will take the fifth nomination slot instead of Rampling. But all four groups agree on the winner.
The experts overwhelmingly favor Larson for the win, with 24 out of 25 backing her: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Tim Gray (Variety), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
The only expert who differs is Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), who thinks Ronan will pull off an upset.
All six out of six editors also predict Larson: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, Tom O’Neil, Paul Sheehan and myself.
Our Top 24 Users are somewhat divided, but they give Larson strong odds to prevail based on support from 18 of those elite predictors, including Denton Davidson and Cinemateo21, who tied for the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (79%). Three more top users are predicting a win for Ronan, and the last three say Blanchett will win her third Oscar.
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