Oscar predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay nominations for ‘The Big Short,’ ‘Steve Jobs,’ ‘Room’ …

steve jobs the big short room oscar predictions best adapted screenplay

The Oscar race for Best Adapted Screenplay has been far less certain than the race for original scripts, where “Spotlight” is the solid frontrunner. But we can’t look to the Writers Guild Awards for clear insight into this race. Because that organization is stricter in its eligibility requirements than the motion picture academy, two of this year’s predicted Oscar nominees, “Room” and “Brooklyn,” were ineligible at the guild kudos. So who will break through in this crowded field?

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The five scripts we think will be nominated for this award are below in order of their racetrack odds, with the predicted winner, “The Big Short,” noted in gold. These official odds are derived from the predictions of 25 Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.

The Big Short” – 10/3
Steve Jobs” – 7/2
Room” – 9/2
Carol” – 13/2
Brooklyn” – 9/1

Compare Oscar odds in all 24 categories:

Experts vs. Editors vs. Top 24 Users vs. All Users

All four of our predictions groups — experts, editors, users and Top 24 — agree on this lineup of nominees, but it’s another story when it comest to predicting who will win.

The experts favor recent Golden Globe champ “Steve Jobs” to win, but just barely. Only seven out of 25 backing the biographical film: Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post),Dave Karger (Fandango), Michael Musto (Out.com), Paul Sheehan(Gold Derby), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Brian Truitt (USA Today).

But another seven experts say it will be “Room” (it ranks below “Steve Jobs” because fewer are predicting it for a nomination): Matt Atchity(Rotten Tomatoes), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly) and Glenn Whipp (LA Times).

Six more experts predict “The Big Short”: Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen(Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) and Susan Wloszczyna(RogerEbert.com).

Two experts are backing “Carol”: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby) and Dave Karger (Fandango). Another two are betting on “Brooklyn”:Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair) and Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere). The last expert, Tim Gray (Variety) is going out on a limb for “The Martian,” which is just outside out overall nomination predictions in sixth place.

Our editors actually give best odds to “The Big Short,” with four out of six of us predicting the Wall Street satire: Chris BeachumMarcus DixonRob Licuria, and myself. Paul Sheehan says “Steve Jobs” has the edge, and Tom O’Neil forecasts a victory for “Room.”

Like our editors, the Top 24 Users are also strongly in favor of “The Big Short,” with 15 of those elite predictors giving it best odds. But six of them are backing “Steve jobs” instead, including Cinemateo21, who tied for the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (79%). Another two top users pick “Carol,” including Denton Davidson, who also had 79% at last year’s nominations. The last of our Top 24 is predicting “Room.”

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What do you think will win Best Adapted Screenplay? 

Make your Oscar predictions using the menu to the right or below. 

You’ll compete to win our contest prizes for best picks — $500 (first place), $300 (second place) and $200 (third place) in Amazon gift certificates — a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Oscar nominations). Be sure to read our contest rules.

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Photo Credits: “The Big Short” by Paramount Pictures; “Steve Jobs” by Francois Duhamel/REX; “Room” by A24

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