Oscar predictions: 3 reasons Alicia Vikander (‘The Danish Girl’) will win Best Supporting Actress

Over the last week or two, there have been rumblings that Kate Winslet could snatch the Best Supporting Actress Oscar from Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl“). Now, although Winslet would be my personal choice for her near-perfect turn as Joanna Hoffman in the masterpiece that is “Steve Jobs,” there is slim chance of an upset here due to three key Oscar facts. 

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1. Two Films, One Year
Although Vikander hasn’t been nominated twice at this year’s Oscars, her turn in “Ex Machina” has been very much in play this awards season, having been nominated for Best Supporting Actress at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTAS. So, let’s look at those previous actors and actresses who have been nominated twice at the Oscars and see if that helped or hindered their chances of coming away with a golden gong.

Of these 11 double nominees, seven of them won an Oscar.  Furthermore, four of those seven won in the supporting acting categories, which bodes very well for Vikander (maybe category fraud is a good thing… for Alicia, at least). So having two films in play during your awards season can only help your chances. More often then not, voters seem to want to reward those who have done extra work that year. And Vikander’s work in both “The Danish Girl” and “Ex Machina” is admittedly very good. So, great news for Vikander!

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2. Critics Choice + SAG beats BAFTA + Golden Globe… just!
Over the past ten years, the four main awards groups (for acting, at least) have been fairly consistent in predicting winners:

Critics Choice, the Golden Globes and BAFTA have all predicted seven out of 10 winners, with a few disagreements along the way (they don’t match up exactly). SAG, however, are a tad more accurate – correctly predicting eight of the last 10 winners. So we can rely just a bit more on the Screen Actors Guild then we can the rest, which is again good news for Vikander as she beat out Winslet to take the prize.

Winsletians (that’s the official name for fans of Kate Winslet, don’t you know?) would argue that her BAFTA and Golden Globe triumphs still her place right alongside Vikander. After all, BAFTA and the Globes match Vikander’s other win, at Critics Choice, in predicting winners and are just a smidge behind SAG. Not to mention that Winslet has the same number of key awards that Vikander does; two for two. But as you can see above, Vikander’s combination of awards beats Winslet’s.

This is proven by a classic battle of Supporting Actresses; Jennifer Lawrence vs Lupita Nyongo. In 2013, the two ladies had a proper head-to-head. They beat one another almost every week, taking it in turns to take home the spoils. Nyongo probably won in the end because her film, “12 Years A Slave” was the Best Picture Favourite while Lawrence’s “American Hustle” was snubbed completely. Lawrence has won the same awards as Winslet; she triumphed at the Golden Globes and shocked at BAFTA just as Winslet did. Nyongo and Vikander both saw victories at the Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild Awards. And it was Nyongo who walked away with the Oscar.

Vikander is headed down that same path while Winslet is taking the route of the runner up. 

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3. Head To Head
The fact remains that Lawrence, although she lost the Academy Award, still managed to directly beat Nyongo at BAFTA and the Globes. That is something Winslet has not done against Vikander. When she won at both BAFTA and the Globes, Vikander wasn’t even in her category – she was placed in lead instead, leaving the field rather open for Winslet to win.

However, when Winslet and Vikander went gone head to head at SAG and Critics Choice, Vikander came away the winner. And when is the next time Winslet and Vikander are going head to head? At the 88th Academy Awards, this coming Sunday. I rest my case.

Alicia Vikander will win Best Supporting Actress for sure, even though she should be in Lead and even though I want Kate Winslet to win and believes she deserves to win. Oh well.

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Photo: “The Danish Girl” (Focus)

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