Who will be nominated for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar on Thursday (January 14)? We have been busy updating our predictions in the wake of Sunday’s Golden Globes and the recent announcement of BAFTA nominees.
The five women we think will be nominated in this category are listed below in order of their racetrack odds with the predicted winner, Rooney Mara (“Carol“), noted in gold. These official odds are derived from the predictions of 25 Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
Even though the above five are our consensus picks, our experts are the only group that agrees on this exact lineup. Our editors think Rachel McAdams (“Spotlight“) will replace Vikander (whom we editors are betting on in the lead race). Users think McAdams and Vikander will both make the cut, at the expense of Mirren. And the Top 24 actually include Vikander in their top-five twice, since they can’t agree on whether she’ll be nominated for “Danish Girl” or “Ex Machina” (academy rules dictate that she can’t be nominated twice in one category).
Despite the confusion regarding the nominations, there is a clearer consensus when it comes to predicting the winner, though it’s far from unanimous.
The experts favor Mara for the win, with 14 out of 25 backing her: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (Fandango), Michael Musto (Out.com), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
Another seven experts forecast a victory for Vikander, but for different performances. Five predict she’ll win for “The Danish Girl”: Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly) and Glenn Whipp (LA Times). Two more give her the edge for “Ex Machina”: Tariq Khan (Fox News) and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily).
Four more actors are supported by one expert each. Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby) is betting on Winslet. Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly) backs Leigh. Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood) says Mirren will prevail. And Tim Gray (Variety) is going out on a limb for Jane Fonda (“Youth“), who ranks eighth in our overall predictions consensus.
Our editors are also divided. Three out of six of us predict Mara: Rob Licuria, Paul Sheehan and myself. Chris Beachum and Marcus Dixon say Leigh will prevail. And O’Neil forecasts a victory for Winslet.
Our Top 24 Users are also divided, but they also give Mara strongest odds to prevail based on support from 10 of those elite predictors, including Cinemateo21, who tied for the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (79%). Seven more top users are predicting a win for Winslet. Five say Vikander will prevail (two for “Danish Girl” and three for “Ex Machina”). And the last two are backing Leigh, including Denton Davidson, who also tied with 79% accuracy in last year’s nominations.
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Photo Credits: “Carol” by Moviestore/REX; “Steve Jobs” by Francois Duhamel/REX; “The Danish Girl” by Focus Features