“Son of Saul” is the overwhelming frontrunner with odds of 1/10 to win Best Foreign-Language Film at the Oscars on Sunday. Laszlo Nemes‘ compelling drama tells the harrowing story of a guard at an Auschwitz death camp who, believing a young boy’s corpse to be that of his son, becomes determined to give him a proper burial. Hungary has won the award only once, for “Mephisto” in 1981, out of eight nominations. The last of those bids was back in 1988.
Our official odds are derived from the predictions of 26 Expert film journalists along with our seven in-house Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscars, the All-Star Users who did the best for the past two years combined and the thousands of entrants in our prediction contest who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
All 26 experts thinks “Son of Saul” will prevail: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox New), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (EW), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
All seven editors say “Son of Saul” will triumph: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Daniel Montgomery, Matt Noble, Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan.
Also forecasting “Son of Saul” to win are 23 of our Top 24 Users as well as all of our All-Stars.
The outlier among the Top 24 Users (jeremy) is predicting up an upset by “Mustang,” Deniz Gamze Erguven‘s coming-of-age story about five girls in a remote Turkish village. Never underestimate France: they are the most nominated country in category history (39) and second to Italy in wins (12).
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Photo Credit: Sony Pictures Classics