Our reader Bohdan Kozar (screen name Engapantio) did so well at predicting last year’s Oscars — 16th place out of more than 3,200 predictors — that he’s now showcased in a league along with the other Top 24 Users to forecast this year’s winners. He had an accuracy rate of 87.50% and 10,017 points last year, missing only three categories: Best Animated Feature, Best Film Editing and Best Animated Short.
This year, Kozar is predicting a Best Picture/Best Director split between “The Big Short” and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu” (“The Revenant“). Is he right? Below, see his explanations for his savvy Oscar predictions and resist the urge to copy or steal them as your own. (Click here to see his current Oscar rankings in all 24 races.)
“My current predictions were prepared several weeks ago,” reveals Kozar. “My approach is to try to pinpoint the winners as early as possible, avoiding unnecessary changes and modifications. This year, in some categories the choice was difficult at the very beginning, such as Best Supporting Actress, Best Director, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, the three Shorts categories and Best Picture.”
“Despite the recent win of ‘Spotlight‘ at SAG-AFTRA, I’m still keen to rely on the chances of ‘The Big Short’ winning in the main category rather than anything else, as I was even before the PGA Awards ceremony. The reason is that ‘The Big Short’ earned nominations with many guilds.
“Another big plus is its A+ Cinemascore for Adam McKay‘s movie. You can’t easily disregard the stat where Best Picture winners usually have the same Cinemascore.”
After this week’s DGA Awards, Kozar made a big switch from McKay to Inarritu for the Oscar’s directing race. “I may even change back my prediction for Best Director given certain things that could happen at the end of this week at BAFTA. Too difficult to be sure, I’d say. It’s just less confidence with predicting a split, having in mind the whole history of Oscars.”
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