Oscar predictions: ‘The Big Short’ is overwhelming frontrunner to win Best Adapted Screenplay

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According to exclusive Gold Derby odds that are derived from the predictions made by our expert journalists, in-house staff editors and contest entrants like you, “The Big Short” has overwhelming 2/13 odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. Based on the book by Michael Lewis, it would be the first career wins for Charles Randolph and writer/director Adam McKay.

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The “Big Short” script is ticking a lot of important boxes this awards derby. McKay and Randolph recently won Best Adapted Screenplay honors at the BAFTA Film Awards, the WGA Awards and the Critics’ Choice Awards. In fact, the only time they lost at a major precursor ceremony this year was at the Golden Globes, when Aaron Sorkin (“Steve Jobs”) pulled off a shocker in the combined screenplay race. Sorkin, however, was snubbed at the Oscars.

Following “The Big Short” on our predictions chart is “Room” (Emma Donoghue) in second place with 25/1 odds. However, Donoghue faces an uphill climb at the Oscars because no woman has ever won for adapting her own source material. Might she be the first?

Rounding out the category, “Carol” (Phyllis Nagy) is in third place with 28/1 odds, followed by “The Martian” (Drew Goddard) in fourth place at 33/1 and “Brooklyn” (Nick Hornby) in last place with odds of 66/1. Click here to see up-to-date odds and rankings in all 24 Oscar races.

Of our 25 expert journalists drawn from major media outlets, all 25 predict “The Big Short” will win Best Adapted Screenplay. That includes our own Paul Sheehan, who has the best overall accuracy (79.50%) of all Experts predicting the past four Oscar ceremonies. See more predictions by our Oscar Experts right here.

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