Oscar predictions: Is ‘Spotlight’ unbeatable in Best Original Screenplay race?

oscars best original screenplay spotlight tom mccarthy josh singer 13579086

According to exclusive Gold Derby odds that are derived from the predictions made by our expert journalists, in-house staff editors and contest entrants like you, “Spotlight” has leading 2/13 odds to win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. It would be the first career wins for Josh Singer and writer/director Tom McCarthy, who also earned a bid for penning the original script for “Up” (2009). But is “Spotlight” unbeatable?

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The “Spotlight” script is ticking a lot of important boxes this awards derby. McCarthy and Singer recently won Best Original Screenplay honors at the BAFTA Film Awards, the WGA Awards and the Critics’ Choice Awards. In fact, the only time they lost at a major precursor ceremony this year was at the Golden Globes, when Aaron Sorkin (“Steve Jobs”) pulled off a shocker in the combined screenplay race. Sorkin, however, was snubbed at the Oscars.

In addition, “Spotlight” is one of only two Best Original Screenplay nominees also up for Best Picture. That bodes well for McCarthy and Singer, as only five original screenplays since 1990 have won this race without a corresponding Best Picture bid.

Bridge of Spies” (Matt Charman, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen) is the other Best Picture nominee in this race, but our odds-makers don’t consider it much of a threat as it’s tied for last place in our rankings with “Straight Outta Compton” (Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge and Alan Wenkus), both of which have 50/1 odds.

The other two nominees for Best Original Screenplay are “Inside Out” (Josh Cooley, Ronnie del Carmen, Pete Docter and Meg LeFauve) in second place with 12/1 odds and “Ex Machina” (Alex Garland) in third place with odds of 40/1. Click here to see up-to-date odds and rankings in all 24 Oscar races.

Of our 25 expert journalists drawn from major media outlets, a whopping 23 predict “Spotlight” will win Best Original Screenplay. The lone holdouts are Tim Gray (Variety) and Keith Simanton (IMDB), who both predict “Inside Out” to win, though they do have “Spotlight” as their #2 choices. See more predictions by our Oscar Experts right here.

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