Oscar predictions: Alicia Vikander skyrockets in tight Supporting Actress race

oscars nominations alicia vikander the danish girl rooney mara 13579086

Perhaps no one has surged more in Gold Derby’s Oscar prediction charts recently than Alicia Vikander, who plays the loving wife to Eddie Redmayne‘s transgender character in “The Danish Girl.” According to the combined predictions of our expert journalists, in-house staff editors and contest entrants like you, Vikander now has more support than all of her co-nominees in the red-hot race for Best Supporting Actress.

Subscribe to Gold Derby Breaking News Alerts & Experts’ Latest Oscar Predictions

Check out the ebbs and flows of this tight race in the Oscar graph below, which shows Vikander taking off like a rocket over the past two weeks.

Back on January 10, she was essentially tied with Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”) and Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”) for who’d win, but as soon as Oscar noms were announced on January 14, she started surging on our charts.

Vikander officially claimed the lead on January 16, as one-time frontrunner Rooney Mara (“Carol”) began her slow descent out of the #1 position.

What is causing such a surge for Vikander? After category confusion saw her and Mara flip-flop between supporting and lead throughout much of the awards derby, last weekend’s Critics’ Choice Awards was the first time they competed against each other for these roles in the supporting race. And Vikander prevailed. Did the critics — who are great bellwethers for predicting the Oscars — finally put an end to this Vikander-vs.-Mara showdown?

In the past 10 years, nine of the critics’ choices in this race have gone onto Oscar glory: Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”), Octavia Spencer (“The Help”), Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”), Mo’Nique (“Precious”), Kate Winslet (who won the Oscars’ lead prize for “The Reader”) and Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls”). Their only misstep was in 2007, when they gave Amy Ryan (“Gone Baby Gone”) the trophy instead of Oscar champ Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton”).

Vikander also had the ultimate breakout year within the industry, appearing in six films over the past year: “The Danish Girl,” “Ex Machina,” “Burnt,” “Testament of Youth,” “Seventh Son” and “The Man from U.N.C.L.E.” That could help her nab extra votes in a close Oscar race.

Dish all the Oscar races in our red-hot forums with Hollywood insiders

Who do you think will win? Make your Oscar predictions beginning with Best Supporting Actress to the right or at the bottom of this post.

You’ll compete to win our contest prizes for best picks — $500 (first place), $300 (second place) and $200 (third place) in Amazon gift certificates — a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Oscar nominations). Be sure to read our contest rules.

Photo Credits: “The Danish Girl” by Focus Features

More News from GoldDerby