The Producers Guild of America has an excellent track record presaging the Best Picture winner at the Oscars. Since it began handiing out prizes in 1989, the guild feted 19 of the 26 Oscar champs, including eight in a row beginning in 2007. But how does it do when it comes to forecasting which Documentary Feature will win the Academy Award?
Since the PGA began giving out this award in 2007, it has honored four of the nine films that went on to win the Oscar while four of its champs were snubbed outright by the academy and one contended there but was defeated.
2007: “Sicko” (lost Oscar to “Taxi to the Dark Side”)
2008: “Man on Wire”
2009: “The Cove”
2010: “Waiting for ‘Superman'” (not nominated at Oscars)
2011: “Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest” (not nominated at Oscars)
2012: “Searching for Sugar Man”
2013: “We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks” (not nominated at Oscars)
2015: “Life Itself” (not nominated at Oscars)
And just how many of the PGA nominees reaped Oscar bids?
Of the 43 PGA contenders over the past nine years, only 11 have gone on to compete at the Oscars.
Of five 2007 PGA nominees: “Sicko” contends at Oscars
Of three 2008 PGA nominees: “Man on Wire” wins Oscar and “Trouble the Water” contends;
Of four 2009 PGA nominees: “The Cove” wins Oscar and “Burma VJ” contends;
Of six 2010 PGA nominees: “Inside Job” wins Oscar;
Of five 2011 PGA nominees: none contend at Oscars;
Of five 2012 PGA nominees: “Searching for Sugar Man” wins Oscar and “The Gatekeepers” contends; and
Of five 2013 PGA nominees: none contend at Oscars;
Of five 2014 PGA nominees: “Virunga” contends at Oscars; and
Of five 2015 PGA nominees: “Amy” wins Oscar and “The Look of Silence” contends.
The guild is schedule to announces its five nominees for Best Documentary Feature on Nov. 22. This is several weeks before the academy reveals which 15 contenders in that category have made it to the semi-finals. The PGA will name the eligible producers of these nominees on Jan. 10 when it unveils the slate in the other film and TV movie categories. Oscar nominations voting closes three days later. The PGA awards take place on Jan. 28, four days after Oscar nominations are announced and 16 days before final voting begins.
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.