What can we expect when the Producers Guild of America announces nominees for Best Picture on Tuesday, January 5 (three days before Oscar balloting closes)? Make your predictions for the PGA line-up at the bottom of this post.
When the Oscars expanded to 10 nominees in 2009, the Producers Guild of American followed suit. And while the academy shifted to a sliding scale four years ago, the PGA stuck with 10 contenders. That leeway has helped it maintain a staggering success rate at previewing the eventual Oscars roster. Indeed, the guild has predicted 47 of the 55 (i.e., 85%) of the Best Picture nominees.
Not surprisingly, our predictions for the 10 films that will contend with the PGA match our forecast line-up for Best Picture at the Oscars, albeit with some variance in the order. Leading the way in both races is “Spotlight.”
The rest of the PGA roster is predicted to be (in order): “The Martian,” “The Revenant,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “Carol,” “Room,” “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” “Brooklyn,” “Bridge of Spies” and “The Big Short.”
Last year, the guild foresaw seven of the eight Oscar contenders: “American Sniper,” “Boyhood,” “Birdman,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “The Imitation Game,” “The Theory of Everything” and “Whiplash.” It missed “Selma,” opting instead for “Foxcatcher,” “Gone Girl” and “Nightcrawler.”
In 2013, eight of the PGA nominees made the cut with academy: eventual Best Picture winner “12 Years a Slave,” as well as “Gravity” (which had tied with it at the PGA), “American Hustle,” “Captain Phillips,” “Dallas Buyers Club” “Her,” “Nebraska,” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.” The other two PGA contenders — “Blue Jasmine” and “Saving Mr. Banks” — were snubbed by the academy. Rather, Brit hit “Philomena” was the ninth Oscar nominee.
In 2012, eight PGA nominees also reaped bids for the top Academy Award — “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Django Unchained,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Les Miserables,” “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Zero Dark Thirty.” Rounding out the roster at the PGA were “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Skyfall.” The guild snubbed the French-language “Amour,” which netted a Best Picture nod from the academy. “Argo” prevailed with the PGA before taking home the Oscar.
In 2011, the PGA predicted seven of the eventual nine Best Picture contenders, including “The Artist” which won with both groups. The PGA filled out their slate with popular pictures “Bridesmaids,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and “The Ides of March” while the Oscars went with “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” and “The Tree of Life.”
In 2010, the PGA previewed nine of the eventual 10 Best Picture Oscar nominees. The guild went for “The Town” while the academy opted for “Winter’s Bone” for the tenth slot. Both groups chose “The King’s Speech” as the Best Picture of the year.
And in 2009, the Oscars concurred with the PGA on eight of the 10 contenders. PGA nominated “Invictus” and “Star Trek” over Oscar choices “The Blind Side” and “A Serious Man.” Both groups picked as best pic “The Hurt Locker.”
The PGA champ will be crowned on January 23, 20 days before final Oscar voting begins. The PGA uses the same system as the Oscars — the preferential ballot — for the final vote. All eight of the most recent winners of the PGA prize also won Best Picture. Indeed, the guild and academy have agreed on 19 of the most recent 26 Best Picture champs.
What film do you think will win the PGA award this year? Make your predictions to the right or at the bottom of this post.
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