Not surprisingly, the Screen Actors Guild Awards is one of the strongest predictors of the four acting categories at the Oscars. Last January, Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”), Brie Larson (“Room”), and Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”) all collected prizes from their peers before prevailing at the Academy Awards as well. But guild members did go with Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”) for Supporting Actor; he was snubbed at the Oscars, with that prize going to Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”). In all, 13 of the 20 SAG nominees reaped Oscar bids.
Two years ago, all four of the individual SAG champs — leads Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”) and Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) as well as supporting players J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), and Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) — went on to win Oscars. And the guild presaged 17 of the eventual 20 Oscar nominees for acting.
However, the guild is less reliable when predicting the Oscar winner for Best Picture. The Best Ensemble Cast winner has matched Oscar’s top prize only 11 times in 21 years, including last year’s double champ “Spotlight” and the 2014 winner “Birdman,” both of which starred Michael Keaton. However, the SAG Awards did preview two of Oscar’s biggest upsets: “Shakespeare in Love” over “Saving Private Ryan” in 1998, and “Crash” over “Brokeback Mountain” in 2005.
Who will win the four individual acting races this time around? And will SAG and Oscar go hand-in-hand for a 12th time for their biggest award? Be sure to make your SAG Awards film nomination predictions right here. You’ll compete to win a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Oscar nominees). Be sure to read our contest rules.