SAG Awards secret advantage: You’d better have an Oscar nomination if you want to win

christian bale the big short alicia vikander the danish girl sag awards

Out of 85 individual acting winners for film over the first 21 years of the SAG Awards, none have ever won without also being nominated for an Oscar. You may want to keep that in mind when you make or update your predictions as to the winners this coming Saturday.

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This correlation includes all of the more anomalous SAG results. For instance, Kim Basinger (“L.A. Confidential”) and Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”) tied for Best Supporting Actress in 1997; both contended at the Oscars with Basinger winning. Then in 2000 Benicio Del Toro won SAG in the lead acting race for “Traffic” even though his Oscar nomination (and win) was as a supporting actor. And in 2008, after Kate Winslet took Best Supporting Actress for “The Reader” at SAG, she won Oscar in the leading race.

Most SAG winners win at the Oscars too. Of the 85 SAG champs, 61 went on to win over the academy, which is an agreement rate of 72% (or about three out of four winners per year).

Those stats are especially meaningful this year because of the significant disconnect between the SAG and Oscar nominees. The two events only have 13 out of 20 nominees in common, compared to 17 in 2014, 14 in 2013 and 14 in 2012.

So if you’re predicting anyone but those lucky 13, you’re betting on a historic upset. The SAG/Oscar nominees are:

Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”

Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”

Christian Bale, “The Big Short”
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”

Rooney Mara, “Carol”
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”

Do you think this year’s SAG champs are among those listed above, or will someone make history?

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Who do you think will win at the SAG Awards? Make your predictions beginning with Best Actor to the right or at the bottom of this post.

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Photo Credits: “The Big Short” by Paramount; “The Danish Girl” by Focus Features

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