SAG Awards film predictions: ‘Manchester by the Sea’ will lead with 4 nominations

According to our predictions, “Manchester by the Sea” will lead the 2017 SAG Award nominations for film when they’re announced on Wednesday, December 14. The indie drama about a lonely man (Casey Affleck) who must confront a past tragedy to take care of his nephew (Lucas Hedges) will receive four nominations, more than any other film, but we’re not expecting it to win the top prize, Best Film Ensemble.

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These official odds are derived from the predictions of leading film Experts, Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s SAG film nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ SAG noms, and hundreds of total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.

“Manchester by the Sea” will be nominated for Best Ensemble, Best Actor (Affleck), Best Supporting Actor (Hedges) and Best Supporting Actress (Michelle Williams). It’s the only film we’re betting on to receive three individual acting bids, but we’re only forecasting one victory: for Affleck in the lead race.

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Instead, “La La Land” is expected to continue its awards winning streak, getting leading 3/1 odds for Best Ensemble. Overall we’re predicting three nominations for the modern-day musical, including lead acting noms for Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone as a jazz musician and aspiring actress who fall in love, with Stone tipped to win Best Actress.

Moonlight” ranks close behind “La La Land” and “Manchester” in our Best Ensemble predictions with 7/2 odds. We think it will also be nominated three times, including supporting bids for Mahershala Ali and Naomie Harris — Ali is predicted to win.

Photo Gallery: Every Best Actor Winner in Academy Award History

Also forecast for three nominations is “Fences,” adapted from the Tony-winning play by August Wilson. It gets 13/2 odds for Best Ensemble, while lead actor Denzel Washington and supporting actress Viola Davis are favored to receive individual acting nominations. We expect Davis to prevail; she has won four SAG Awards to date out of six nominations, and she’s also expected to be nominated again this year for her role in the TV drama series “How to Get Away with Murder,” for which she has won for the last two years in a row.

Rounding out our Best Ensemble predictions is “Hidden Figures,” which tells the true story of the unsung mathematicians of the NASA space program. It gets 18/1 odds in the top category, and though we’re not predicting any other nominations for the film we think Taraji P. Henson is a potential spoiler for a Best Actress nom.

Photo Gallery: Top 15 Best Actor Oscar Predictions Gallery

Find out who else we’re betting on below. The predicted winners are indicated in gold, and potential spoilers are in italics.

“La La Land” — 3/1
“Manchester by the Sea” — 3/1
“Moonlight” — 7/2
“Fences” — 13/2
“Hidden Figures” — 18/1

Spoilers: “20th Century Women” (28/1); “Hell or High Water” (40/1); “Silence” (80/1)

Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” — 15/8
Denzel Washington, “Fences” — 3/1
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” — 6/1
Joel Edgerton, “Loving” — 9/1
Tom Hanks, “Sully” — 10/1

Spoilers: Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” (25/1); Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” (40/1)

Photo Gallery: Every Best Picture Winner in Oscar History

Emma Stone, “La La Land” — 2/1
Natalie Portman, “Jackie” — 10/3
Annette Bening, “20th Century Women” — 6/1
Ruth Negga, “Loving” — 9/1
Amy Adams, “Arrival” — 11/1

Spoilers: Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” (33/1); Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures” (33/1); Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” (40/1)

Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” — 9/5
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” — 9/2
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” — 11/2
Dev Patel, “Lion” — 9/1
Liam Neeson, “Silence” — 14/1

Spoilers: Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” (18/1); Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins” (33/1); Ben Foster, “Hell or High Water” (50/1)

Viola Davis, “Fences” — 9/5
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” — 7/2
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” — 5/1
Nicole Kidman, “Lion” — 15/2
Greta Gerwig, “20th Century Women” — 22/1

Spoilers: Helen Mirren, “Eye in the Sky” (50/1); Molly Shannon, “Other People” (66/1)

Predict the SAG nominations now; change them till Dec. 14

Be sure to make your SAG Awards predictions. How do you think “Manchester by the Sea” will do with guild voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this show is faring in our SAG Awards odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on December 14 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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