SAG Awards predictions: Will Mark Rylance (‘Wolf Hall’) or Idris Elba (‘Luther’) win on the TV side?

sag awards predictions mark rylance wolf hall idris elba luther 13579086

At this year’s SAG Awards, Mark Rylance and Idris Elba face off in two different races: Best Film Supporting Actor (read Daniel Montgomery’s analysis here) and Best TV Movie/Limited Series Actor. While both men lost at the Golden Globes for these TV roles — Rylace for “Wolf Hall” and Elba for “Luther” —  to Oscar Isaac (“Show Me a Hero”), Elba got his revenge by taking home the Critics’ Choice Award last week. Now, who will win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards?

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Our Top 24 Users, those two dozen folks who had the highest scores predicting last year’s SAG winners, favor Rylance to take home his first SAG trophy. Fourteen of them expect him to win, giving him leading 8/11 odds: Harley Diamond, TonyThomas, eastwest, Bird, FreemanGriffin, SenanL, MovieMania, JonathanMasongsong, Nika Litt, smor, Noe, OberynShmartell, Awardzilla and wienrdog0.

However, not all of our Top 24 Users are in agreement. Eight of them (dosmax, KingJay, Eng Keat, bondzzz, GermnArturoCortsMatus, SupaDupa Fly, steo and AayaanUpadhyaya ) predict Elba, who contended in 2007 as part of the cast of “American Gangster,” will win this category, giving him second-best odds of 9/5. Elba has a third bid this year as one of the “Beasts of No Nation” ensemble.

Last year there was a seven-way tie for best predictions at 87.50% (seven out of eight categories correct), with bondzzz reaping the highest point score of 11,756 because of his smart use of his 500 and 200 point bets, so it would be wise to heed his predictions.

And Draz and Chels725 forecast a victory for Bill Murray (“A Very Murray Christmas“), resulting in third-place odds of 22/1. This would be Murray’s first-ever win at the SAG Awards, after being nominated for “Lost in Translation” (Best Film Actor, 2003) and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (Best Film Ensemble, 2014).

None of our Top 24 are predicting victories for either Ben Kingsley (“Tut“), who comes in fourth place with 50/1 odds, or Ray Liotta (“Texas Rising“) who’s our fifth-place pick with 80/1 odds. Kingsley previously won in this category in 2001 for “Anne Frank: The Whole Story,” while Liotta lost his previous SAG bid here in 1998 for “The Rat Pack” to Christopher Reeve (“Rear Window”).

Our Editors, we who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, are split between the two frontrunners. Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria and Daniel Montgomery predict Elba, while Matt Noble and Paul Sheehan forecast a victory for Rylance.

Compare SAG odds: Experts vs. Editors vs. Top 24 Users vs. All Users

Who do you think will win at the SAG Awards? Make your predictions beginning with Best TV Movie/Limited Series Actor to the right or at the bottom of this post.

You could win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting the SAG winners). Be sure to read our contest rules.

Photo Credits: “Wolf Hall” by PBS; “Luther” by BBC America

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