SAG Awards TV predictions: ‘Orange is the New Black’ will three-peat for Best Comedy Ensemble

Orange is the New Black” will win the SAG Award for Best TV Comedy Ensemble for the third year in a row according to our predictions, but it’s in for a tough fight against HBO’s “Veep,” which is the two-time reigning Emmy champ for Best Comedy Series but has never won the top prize from the Screen Actors Guild.

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These official odds are derived from the predictions of Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s SAG TV nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ SAG noms, and hundreds of total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.

“Orange is the New Black” gets leading 23/10 odds of winning Best TV Comedy Ensemble. It’s often a strong advantage at the SAG Awards to have the largest cast, and “OITNB” takes full advantage of that; its cast comprises dozens of actors playing characters of various identities, backgrounds and backstories. One of those actors, Uzo Aduba, has won her individual category, Best TV Comedy Actress, for the last two years in a row. We bet she will be nominated again, but she’s less likely to win this time around.

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“Veep” is a close second for Best Ensemble with 5/2 odds. It has been nominated for the last three years in a row, as has star Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Best TV Comedy Actress (she won in 2013), but the ensemble is still awaiting its first victory.

Transparent” made the cut for Best TV Comedy Ensemble for the first time last year and we anticipate a repeat nomination, ranking it third in the category with 10/3 odds. But star Jeffrey Tambor is the odds-on favorite to win Best TV Comedy Actor for the second year in a row for playing a transgender woman adjusting after coming out late in life.

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Modern Family” is fourth with 4/1 odds. The long-running series holds the record for the most victories for Best TV Comedy Ensemble (four in a row, from 2010 to 2013), but it’s no longer as dominant on the awards scene as it once was. We also anticipate an individual nomination for scene-stealer Ty Burrell, but we’re not picking either of them to win.

Rounding out the top category will be “Black-ish,” which gets 11/2 odds. The series is currently in its third season on ABC, but it has never contended at the SAG Awards before. However, its profile continues to rise; it earned its first Emmy nom for Best Comedy Series this past summer, and a corresponding Golden Globe nom this week. Now it looks like the show will be embraced by the industry’s actors, as will Anthony Anderson, who we’re predicting will be nominated for Best TV Comedy Actor.

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Find out who else we’re betting on below. The predicted winners are indicated in gold, and potential spoilers are in italics.

“Orange is the New Black” — 23/10
“Veep” — 5/2
“Transparent” — 10/3
“Modern Family” — 4/1
“Black-ish” — 11/2

Spoilers: “The Big Bang Theory” (13/2); “Silicon Valley” (15/2); “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (14/1)

Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent” — 7/4
William H. Macy, “Shameless” — 10/3
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family” — 4/1
Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish” — 4/1
Louie Anderson, “Baskets” — 9/1

Spoilers: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” (11/1); Donald Glover, “Atlanta” (12/1); Tony Hale, “Veep” (14/1)

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep” — 7/4
Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” — 7/2
Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black” — 7/2
Sarah Jessica Parker, “Divorce” — 5/1
Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie” — 7/1

Spoilers: Allison Janney, “Mom” (12/1); Issa Rae, “Insecure” (14/1); Julie Bowen, “Modern Family” (16/1)

Predict the SAG nominations now; change them till Dec. 14

Be sure to make your SAG Awards predictions. How do you think “Orange is the New Black” will do with guild voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this show is faring in our SAG Awards odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on December 14 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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