SAG Awards: Oscar preview for Casey Affleck, Emma Stone, Mahershala Ali, Viola Davis?

The four Oscar frontrunners for acting — leads Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) and Emma Stone (“La La Land) and supporting players Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) and Viola Davis (“Fences”) — all reaped bids at the SAG Awards. Does this make them unstoppable at these precursor prizes then? Not so fast.

The Screen Actors Guild, which numbers more than 125,000, has been bestowing competitive awards since 1994. However, despite the actors branch making up 20% of the 6,600 Oscar voters, just over two-thirds of SAG champs have won over the academy as well. Compare that to the 90% success rate of the Directors Guild of America at presaging which helmer will prevail at the Oscars.

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Over its first 22 years, this awardsfest has handed out 88 trophies to performers. The SAG choices have forecast the Academy Awards winners just 62 times — 64 if you count Benicio del Toro, who won in lead at SAG in 2000 for “Traffic” and supporting at the Oscars and Kate Winslet who did the reverse, winning supporting at SAG in 2008 for “The Reader” and lead at the Oscars.

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Here is the year-by-year breakdown of how many SAG individual winners repeated at the Oscars.

1994: 3 out of 4;
1995: 2 out of 4
1996: 3 out of 4
1997: 4 out of 4 (Kim Basinger and Gloria Stuart tied in supporting)
1998: 2 out of 4
1999: 3 out of 4
2000: 2 out of 4 (Del Toro in different categories)
2001: 1 out of 4
2002: 1 out of 4
2003: 3 out of 4
2004: 4 out of 4
2005: 3 out of 4
2006: 3 out of 4
2007: 2 out of 4
2008: 3 out of 4 (Winslet in different categories)
2009: 4 out of 4
2010: 4 out of 4
2011: 3 out of 4
2012: 3 out of 4
2013: 4 out of 4
2014: 4 out of 4
2015: 3 out of 4

These awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2016, will be presented on Jan. 29, 2017 on both TNT and TBS beginning at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT. Lily Tomlin will be feted with the Life Achievement Award.

Make your SAG predictions now; change them till Jan. 29

Make your SAG picks and tell industry insiders which shows and performers you have out front to win on January 29.  You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before the show time. Be sure to make your predictions right here. You’ll compete for a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s nominees). Read our contest rules.

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