Beating the odds, “Spotlight” won Best Picture at the Oscars on Sunday, opposite tough competition from “The Revenant,” “The Big Short” and “Mad Max: Fury Road.” Gold Derby’s frontrunner with odds of 4/5 to prevail was actually “The Revenant,” while “Spotlight” came in second place with 4/1 odds.
Our official odds are derived from the predictions of 28 Expert film journalists along with our seven in-house Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscars, the All-Star Users who did the best for the past two years combined and the thousands of entrants in our prediction contest who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
Sixteen of our 28 experts thought “The Revenant” would prevail: Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tim Gray (Variety), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox New), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
“Spotlight” saw a late surge that resulted in eight experts predicting it: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Piya Sinha-Roy (Reuters) and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone).
Among the seven editors, six were forecasting “The Revenant”: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Daniel Montgomery, Matt Noble and Paul Sheehan. Only Tom O’Neil voted for “Spotlight.”
Also predicting “The Revenant” to win were 12 of our Top 24 Users. “The Big Short” had 10 votes, while “Spotlight” had two backers.
As for our All-Star Users, 13 predicted “The Revenant,” seven chose “The Big Short” and four opted for “Spotlight.”
Photo Credit: 20th Century Fox