2017 Emmy predictions: Best Comedy Guest Actor

Will Hugh Laurie finally win an Emmy? He’s nominated this year for Best Comedy Guest Actor for his role in “Veep,” but he has accumulated nine other nominations since 2005: six for Best Drama Actor for “House,” one for Best Drama Series for “House,” and a pair of bids last year for Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actor and Best Limited Series for “The Night Manager.” Will the 10th time be the charm? He’s holding one of the biggest Emmy IOUs at this year’s awards.

Be sure to make your own predictions in this race as well as the rest of the Primetime Emmy categories and compete against our Emmy experts who cover this race year-round for such leading media outlets, as well as the two dozen amateurs who ranked in the top 24 last year, the all-stars who did well for two years in a row, and thousands of Emmy fans just like you. (Scroll down to see up-to-date racetrack odds derived from all of these predictions.)

Laurie might have the added advantage of being the only nominee in this category for “Veep.” Under the new Emmy system the decides winners by a simple plurality vote, there is a greater risk of vote-splitting if one show is nominated multiple times, and the other five contenders in this race are all up against at least one other actor from the same show.

There are three men in the running from “Saturday Night Live”: Dave Chappelle, Tom Hanks, and Lin-Manuel Miranda. Of those three, Chappelle is the only one without a previous victory; he earned two earlier noms for “Chappelle’s Show” and one for his 2004 comedy special “For What It’s Worth.” Meanwhile, Miranda previously won an Emmy for songwriting in 2014; this is his first bid for acting. But Hanks’s Emmy track record eclipses them both. This is his 16th nomination, and he has won seven times as a producer and director, but would you believe this is the Oscar winner’s first ever nomination for acting?

We know Emmy voters love “SNL,” which has 22 total nominations, tied with “Westworld” as the most nominated show of the year. And sketch comedy is especially admired by the TV academy’s actors branch, which nominated nine performers from the show, more than any other program on TV. Also, “SNL” has a strong track record in this race with four previous wins (Justin Timberlake in 2009 and 2011, Jimmy Fallon in 2012 and 2014). But can any one of them avoid splitting votes with the others?

Riz Ahmed and Matthew Rhys are both nominated for their performances in “Girls.” That HBO comedy won this award last year for Peter Scolari, and Ahmed and Rhys are certainly popular with Emmy voters as both received double acting nominations this year: Ahmed also has a Best Movie/Mini Actor bid for “The Night Of,” and Rhys is up for Best Drama Actor for “The Americans.” Maybe voters will honor one of them in this category as a way to recognize their body of work this season. But alternately, it’s possible voters will check their names in their other categories and won’t feel the need to mark them off here.

UPDATED: August 24, 2017

1. Hugh Laurie, “Veep” — 6/5

2. Tom Hanks, “Saturday Night Live” — 3/1

3. Matthew Rhys, “Girls” — 10/3

4. Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Saturday Night Live” — 10/3

5. Dave Chappelle, “Saturday Night Live” — 10/3

6. Riz Ahmed, “Girls” — 10/3

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