2017 Emmy predictions: Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actress

This year’s race for Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actress is a competition between Emmy newcomers, Emmy favorites, and a frequent Emmy contender still looking for her first victory. Regina King has won this award twice in a row for “American Crime,” but in one of the most competitive years ever for movies and miniseries, she has her work cut out for her to win again.

Be sure to make your own predictions in this race as well as the rest of the Primetime Emmy categories and compete against our Emmy experts who cover this race year-round for such leading media outlets, as well as the two dozen amateurs who ranked in the top 24 last year, the all-stars who did well for two years in a row, and thousands of Emmy fans just like you. (Scroll down to see up-to-date racetrack odds derived from all of these predictions.)

King is nominated for her performance in the anthology “American Crime,” which told a different story every season, so King’s last two wins for the series were for drastically different roles. Both of her previous victories were upsets, which indicates that we shouldn’t underestimate her no matter what, and in season three of “Crime” King had her most prominent role yet as a social worker who counsels at-risk youth. However, “Crime” was cancelled following its third season, which may stigmatize the show in the eyes of some voters, and the show has been waning in its overall Emmy support — from 10 nominations in 2015, down to four in 2016, and now just two in 2017.

But King does have the advantage of being nominated by herself. She doesn’t have any co-stars in this category who could split the vote, which is a greater risk under the new plurality voting system that was implemented in 2016. That could be a problem for Laura Dern and Shailene Woodley as rival mothers in an affluent community in “Big Little Lies.” Dern has been nominated six times over the last 25 years, but she has yet to win, so voters may be especially inclined to vote for her. Then again, first-time nominee Woodley has an even more prominent role and she plays the more sympathetic character.

Voters might also struggle to decide between Judy Davis and Jackie Hoffman in “Feud: Bette and Joan.” Davis is an Emmy darling with 11 previous nominations and three wins. Under normal circumstances she might be considered the favorite for her role as infamous gossip columnist Hedda Hopper, but Hoffman could draw just as much support — or maybe more — for her scene-stealing work as Joan Crawford‘s loyal housekeeper. Hoffman is the kind of widely admired character actor who often wins Emmys (consider Margo Martindale‘s three wins since 2011), so don’t count her out.

But if the “Feud” and “Big Little Lies” stars cancel each other out and voters are ready to move on from King and “American Crime,” that could open the door for Michelle Pfeiffer (“The Wizard of Lies”). She’s an Oscar nominated movie star who now contends for her first Emmy for playing a real-life role: Ruth Madoff, the wife of con artist Bernie Madoff. There isn’t as much support for “Wizard of Lies” (four nominations) as there is for “Feud” (18 nominations) or “Big Little Lies” (16 nominations), but a number of actors proved last year that you don’t necessarily need any other nominations to win if the academy gets behind you. Just ask Tatiana Maslany (“Orphan Black”), Louie Anderson (“Baskets”), and Peter Scolari (“Girls”).

UPDATED: August 24, 2017

1. Laura Dern, “Big Little Lies” — 2/3

2. Judy Davis, “Feud: Bette and Joan” — 11/2

3. Regina King, “American Crime” — 8/1

4. Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Wizard of Lies” — 14/1

5. Shailene Woodley, “Big Little Lies” — 18/1

6. Jackie Hoffman, “Feud: Bette and Joan” — 40/1

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