The musical romance “La La Land” earned 14 Oscar nominations, tying the record held by “All About Eve” (1950) and “Titanic” (1997). It has been the Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture for virtually the entire fall and winter awards season, so unless there’s a historic upset the real question is how many it will win on its way to victory at the end of the night. As of this writing we’re predicting it will triumph in nine categories, falling a couple of trophies shy of the record 11 collected by “Ben-Hur” (1959), “Titanic” (1997) and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003).
Sign up to get Gold Derby’s free newsletter with experts’ latest predictions and breaking news
That’s according to our official odds, which are derived from the predictions of film Experts, Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar winners, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Oscar results, and hundreds of total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
While we’re not forecasting a record haul for “La La Land,” its anticipated dominance doesn’t leave much for its competitors. In fact, only two other films are expected to collect multiple awards. “Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan‘s emotional drama about a Massachusetts handyman who must take care of his teenage nephew, is the frontrunner in two categories. We think it will take Best Actor (Casey Affleck) and Best Original Screenplay, but both of those races are close. In the writing category it could be upset by “La La Land,” and the margin for Best Actor is so razor-thin that the momentum could easily swing back to Affleck’s rival Denzel Washington (“Fences”) by the time our predictions center closes on Sunday night.
Dish the Oscars with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums
“Moonlight” is also expected to win twice. The indie drama about a poor young man coming to terms with his sexuality in Miami comes into these awards with eight nominations, tied with “Arrival” as the second most nominated film of the year, and it’s projected to win Best Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali) and Best Adapted Screenplay.
Elsewhere, “Fences” is predicted to win Best Supporting Actress for Viola Davis. Disney’s “Zootopia” is favored for Best Animated Feature. Iran’s “The Salesman” has the edge for Best Foreign Language Film against Germany’s “Toni Erdmann.” And the eight-hour ESPN film “O.J.: Made in America” will edge out “13th” for Best Documentary Feature.
Oscar Best Picture Gallery: History of Every Academy Award-Winning Movie
Find out who else we’re betting on below. And there’s still time to make or edit your own predictions before the winners are announced on February 26.
“LA LA LAND”
Best Director — Damien Chazelle
Best Actress — Emma Stone
Best Film Editing
Best Production Design
Best Song — “City of Stars”
Best Sound Mixing
Oscar Best Actress Gallery: Every Winner in Academy Award History
“MANCHESTER BY THE SEA”
Best Actor — Casey Affleck
Best Original Screenplay
Best Supporting Actor — Mahershala Ali
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Live Action Short
Best Documentary Short
Best Supporting Actress — Viola Davis
Best Sound Editing
Best Costume Design
Oscar Best Actor Gallery: Every Winner in Academy Award History
“THE JUNGLE BOOK”
Best Visual Effects
“O.J.: MADE IN AMERICA”
Best Documentary Feature
Best Animated Short
Best Foreign Language Film
“STAR TREK BEYOND”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Animated Feature
Predict the Oscar winners now; change them till February 26
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.