Breaking down the precursor awards — both nominations and winners — as well as the top Oscar nominations by categories gives us 35 key races that will determine the strongest contenders. Last year’s Best Picture champ, “Spotlight,” went into Oscar night with check marks in 21 boxes while its two closest rivals, “The Revenant” and “The Big Short,” outpaced it with 23 and 22 ticks respectively.
This year’s counting started with the Critics’ Choice nominations and winners, and was followed soon thereafter by the announcement of the line-ups for the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. At that point, “Moonlight,” “Manchester by the Sea,” and “La La Land” were the front runners with seven boxes ticked each while “Sully” had disappointed with one and “Silence” stayed, well, silent, with none.
What a difference a week makes. The Golden Globes winners were revealed and BAFTA, PGA, WGA and DGA all announced nominations. All of this means, we are now up to 20 of the 35 boxes being in play (as detailed below and indicated by italics). The clear favorite remains “La La Land,” which has ticks in a staggering 19 boxes while “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight” aren’t far behind at 16 and 15 respectively.
Plus, a brand new film has entered the fray. It is with great pleasure and a certain degree of surprise that I can say that “Deadpool” has joined the below charts. With recognition from four guilds, including PGA, it simply cannot be ignored.
As awards season progresses, different films will have different strengths; some will do well with acting, others with writing or directing. But what are we looking for are those films that are represented across a range of races. Stay tuned.
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
PGA – Producers Guild of America
DGA – Directors Guild of America
WGA – Writers Guild of America
ACE – American Cinema Editors
- 1) Critics Choice, Best Picture – NOMINATION
- 2) Critics Choice, Best Picture – WIN
- 3) Golden Globe, Best Picture (Comedy/Musical or Drama) – NOMINATION
- 4) Golden Globe, Best Picture (Comedy/Musical or Drama) – WIN
- 5) Golden Globe, Directing – NOMINATION
- 6) Golden Globe, Directing – WIN
- 7) Golden Globe, Acting (Any category) – NOMINATION
- 8) Golden Globe, Acting (Any category) – WIN
- 9) Golden Globe, Writing – NOMINATION
- 10) Golden Globe, Writing – WIN
- 11) BAFTA, Best Picture – NOMINATION
- 12) BAFTA, Best Picture – WIN
- 13) BAFTA, Directing – NOMINATION
- 14) BAFTA, Directing – WIN
- 15) BAFTA, Acting – NOMINATION
- 16) BAFTA, Acting – WIN
- 17) BAFTA, Writing – NOMINATION
- 18) BAFTA, Writing – WIN
- 19) SAG, Individual Performance – NOMINATION
- 20) SAG, Individual Performance – WIN
- 21) SAG, Ensemble Performance- NOMINATION
- 22) SAG, Ensemble Performance- WIN
- 23) PGA – NOMINATION
- 24) PGA – WIN
- 25) DGA – NOMINATION
- 26) DGA – WIN
- 27) WGA – NOMINATION
- 28) WGA – WIN
- 29) ACE – NOMINATION
- 30) ACE – WIN
- 31) Oscar, Directing – NOMINATION
- 32) Oscar, Acting – NOMINATION
- 33) Oscar, Writing – NOMINATION
- 34) Oscar, Film Editing – NOMINATION
- 35) Love Across the Board (Over 5 Oscar nominations)
So, after the biggest week to date in this year’s awards season, it’s still the same three frontrunners — “Moonlight,” “Manchester by the Sea,” and “La La Land.” All are pulling even further ahead of the competition while“La La Land” stands out over the other two.
With 19 ticks, “La La Land” is just two away from the final tally of last year’s Best Picture winner “Spotlight.” It’s record-setting haul of seven wins at the Globes enabled it to check off four Golden Globes boxes (Picture Win, Directing Win, Acting Win and Writing Win). And it nabbed four BAFTA and four guild (PGA, DGA, WGA and ACE) ticks.
“Manchester by the Sea” won Best Drama Actor at the Globes and also snagged all four possible BAFTA and guild ticks and is up to 16 boxes. Likewise “Moonlight,” which did as well at BAFTA and the guilds, won Best Drama at the Globes and now has 15 ticks.
“Arrival” was a favorite of BAFTA and also earned those four guild nominations for a total of 11 boxes. Both “Hell or High Water” and “Hacksaw Ridge” continue to do well; the former has 10 ticks while the latter has nine.
Newcomer “Deadpool” continues to punch above it’s predicted weight. It’s ticked five boxes so far: two from the Golden Globes (Best Picture and Acting nominations), and three from the guilds (ACE, WGA and PGA). A great display, outdoing more obvious, Oscar-bait films such as “Sully (still stuck on one despite Tom Hanks’ presence), “Jackie” (a biopic with great review but which only has Natalie Portman registering) and “Silence.” Well done, “Deadpool.”
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions.Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.