2018 Golden Globe nominations: Editors debate if ‘The Shape of Water’ is the frontrunner and if ‘The Post’ can surprise [VIDEO AND PODCAST]

“The big takeaway, first of all, is that ‘The Shape of Water’ is really moving up in the awards season,” says Daniel Montgomery about the 2018 Golden Globe nominations and how they reflect the entire awards race. “It led the Critics’ Choice nominations last week — it had 14 there. Now it’s the top nominee at the Golden Globes where it has seven.” Watch Montgomery discuss the biggest shockers, frontrunners, and potential upsets with Tom O’Neil, Chris Beachum, Paul Sheehan, and Marcus James Dixon above, or scroll down to listen to the podcast version at the bottom of this post.

SEE Golden Globes TV nominations slugfest: Editors applaud surprises (Freddie Highmore), hiss at snubs (Julia Louis-Dreyfus) [WATCH]

These nominations may actually prove to be more influential to the Oscars than whoever ends up winning on January 7. “It sets up so nicely for Oscar nomination voting, which starts a couple of days before the Golden Globes are handed out,” Sheehan explains. “Nobody knows who’s going to win the Globes when Oscar nomination voting starts, but [‘The Shape of Water’ is] perceived as being the frontrunner.”

However, the momentum could change once the Globe winners are revealed. “I look at three movies in [Best Film Drama] — ‘The Post,’ ‘The Shape of Water,’ ‘Three Billboards’ — that all have directing and writing [nominations]. I don’t know how we’re going to sort that out,” says Beachum about how there’s no decisive frontrunner in the top contest. “I’m probably going to put ‘The Post’ in first.”

SEE Golden Globes 2018: Full list of nominations led by ‘The Shape of Water,’ ‘Big Little Lies’

“The Post” tells the true story of the Washington Post publishing the Pentagon Papers in defiance of the Richard Nixon administration. All-time Golden Globe queen Meryl Streep is nominated for her role as Post publisher Katharine Graham. Streep holds the all-time Globes record with eight competitive wins — plus the Cecil B. DeMille Award for her lifetime achievements — and O’Neil says to watch out for her: “Streep can go all the way to the Oscar. Everyone is underestimating her like the year of ‘The Iron Lady.'” If she does go all the way it would be her fourth Oscar win, which would tie Katharine Hepburn‘s all-time record for actors at the Academy Awards.

Whichever way you’re leaning, though, when making your predictions it might be a good idea to hedge your bets. “La La Land” swept the awards last year by claiming all seven of it’s nominations, but that’s rare. Dixon warns, “It’s usually not a good thing to predict sweeps … When you’re picking the winners, maybe don’t go ‘Shape of Water’ for everything.” But with seven bids this year it does seem as though “Shape of Water” is likely to win something. But it’s got plenty of competition.

Below is the audio podcast version of the editors’ discussion. Do a search for GoldDerby at iTunes to subscribe to our podcast series.

NOTE: During the discussion, Tom O’Neil wrongly states that “Boyhood” was not nominated for Best Director by the Globes. In fact, its helmer Richard Linklater won.

Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 7. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

More News from GoldDerby