This year’s Oscar race for Best Picture may be the closest in recent history, with at least a half-dozen films still looking like viable contenders to win. We’re just as divided over Best Film Drama at the preceding Golden Globes, where our Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users, All-Star Top 24, and more than 1,000 everyday Users are split five ways. Even the consensus choices vary: our Experts collectively give the edge to “The Shape of Water,” while Editors strongly favor “The Post.” So who’s right?
As of this writing 11 Expert film journalists have made their Globe picks, and six of them are betting on “The Shape of Water”: Edward Douglas, Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Adnan Virk (ESPN), and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com). The fishy fairy tale has the most nominations (seven), just like “La La Land” last year when it achieved an unprecedented clean sweep of all its categories. It also has international appeal thanks to its Mexican director, Guillermo Del Toro, British leading lady, Sally Hawkins, and American subject matter (Cold War-era intolerance). That could give it a boost with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association that decides the Globes.
Only three Experts say “The Post” will win: Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), and Brian Truitt (USA Today). But Steven Spielberg‘s impassioned tribute to journalistic integrity is backed by four out of six Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Matt Noble, and myself. Indeed, the film may appeal to another soft spot for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association: voting for this film gives them the opportunity to stand up for press freedom and symbolically stick it to Donald Trump one year after “The Post” star Meryl Streep made headlines for her Cecil B. DeMille Award acceptance speech excoriating the incoming commander-in-chief.
When all predictions are combined “Shape of Water” has the slight advantage with 3/2 odds, followed by “The Post” with 21/10 odds, but even then we can’t rule out the remaining contenders “Dunkirk,” “Call Me by Your Name,” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” all of which have significant support as well. Are you as confounded by this Globes race as we are?
Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 7. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.