Golden Globes predictions by experts: Oscar frontrunner ‘Dunkirk’ far ahead for Best Drama

Ten of our 16 Golden Globe experts derived from major media outlets are predicting that the Oscar frontrunner, “Dunkirk,” will win Best Drama at these precursor prizes. Of the other half dozen experts, two each back Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name” and Steven Spielberg‘s docudramaThe Post,” while one is entranced by Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water” and another is taken with Martin McDonagh‘s character study “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” (See the Golden Globe predictions by expert.)

Of the 64 winners of Best Drama at the Golden Globes, exactly half went on to take home the top prize at the Oscars. However, since the academy expanded the Best Picture race in 2009, just three of the eight winners of that award had previously prevailed on the drama side at the Golden Globes, including last year’s double champ “Moonlight.”

See how our experts rank Golden Globe contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Golden Globe Best Drama predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top eight contenders to win (all other films have odds of 100/1):

DISCUSS All the Golden Globe contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

1. “Dunkirk”: 10 experts (23/10 odds)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Anne Thompson (IndieWire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (

2. “The Post”: Two experts (4/1 odds)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)

3. “Call Me By Your Name”: Two experts (4/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

4. “The Shape of Water”: One expert (11/2 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)

5. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: One expert (9/1 odds)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)

6. “Darkest Hour”: (16/1 odds)

7. “Mudbound”: (33/1 odds)

8. “Phantom Thread”: (50/1 odds)

Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on December 11. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions

More News from GoldDerby