Golden Globes predictions by experts: Oscar frontrunner ‘Dunkirk’ barely ahead of ‘The Post’ for Best Drama

Five of our 12 Golden Globe experts derived from major media outlets are still predicting that the Oscar frontrunner, “Dunkirk,” will win Best Drama at these precursor prizes. However, four of them now back Steven Spielberg‘s docudramaThe Post,” which chronicles the fight by the Washington Post to publish papers related to the Vietnam War, over Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic.

Of the three remaining experts, one is enamored by Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name”; one is entranced by Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water”; and one is stuck on Dee Rees‘ heartfelt drama “Mudbound.

Of the 64 winners of Best Drama at the Golden Globes, exactly half went on to take home the top prize at the Oscars. However, since the academy expanded the Best Picture race in 2009, just three of the eight winners of that award had previously prevailed on the drama side at the Golden Globes, including last year’s double champ “Moonlight.”

See how our experts rank Golden Globe contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Golden Globe Best Drama predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top eight contenders to win (all other films have odds of 100/1):

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1. “Dunkirk”: Five experts (3/1 odds)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (

2. “The Post”: Four experts (4/1 odds)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)

3. “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (4/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)

4. “The Shape of Water”: One expert (9/2 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)

5. “Darkest Hour”: (11/1 odds)

6. “Mudbound”: One expert (20/1 odds)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

7. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: (25/1 odds)

8. “Phantom Thread”: (66/1 odds)

Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on December 11. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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