Best Supporting Actor Oscar predictions by experts: Willem Dafoe (‘The Florida Project’) leads, Sam Rockwell (‘Three Billboards’) rising fast

According to our 24 Oscar experts from major media outlets, screen veteran Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”) has the edge in the race for Best Supporting Actor. This well-respected character actor has the backing of 11 experts and odds of 3/1 to finally win an Academy Award for his sensitive portrayal of a kindly hotel manager in Sean Baker‘s sophomore film. He lost this race back in 1986 for his role in the Best Picture “Platoon” and again in 2000 for “Shadow of the Vampire.”

Our other experts are divided as to the likeliest winner of this award, which often goes to a actor who has been overlooked by the academy in the past.

Four of them favor Sam Rockwell, who has never been nominated despite acclaimed turns in such films as “Conviction.” He sits in second place for his scene-stealing work as a racist police offer in Martin McDonagh‘s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Another expert expects two-time Oscar nominee Woody Harrelson to win for his role in this dark drama as a dying police chief.

Three experts foresee a win Michael Stuhlbarg for his understated work as the father of a teenager who come out in “Call Me By Your Name.” He headlined the Oscar-nominated “A Serious Man” back in 2009 before featuring in such fare as “Hugo” “Lincoln” and “Arrival” but has yet to be recognized by the academy. Another expert is predicting that Armie Hammer will prevail on his first nomination for playing the son’s lover.

And one-time Best Actor nominee Richard Jenkins (“The Visitor,” 2007) is the pick of two experts for his role as a kindly neighbor conscripted by his friend (Sally Hawkins) to help free a creature in “The Shape of Water.”

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Below we break down the Oscar Best Supporting Actor predictions by expert and include the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win. And be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in the other top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

1. Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”: 11 experts (3/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (

2. Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: Four experts (4/1 odds)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)

3. Michael Stuhlbarg, “Call Me By Your Name”: Three experts (9/2 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

4. Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”: Two experts (9/1 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)

5. Armie Hammer, “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (12/1 odds)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)

6. Jason Mitchell, “Mudbound”: One expert (25/1 odds)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, “Darkest Hour”: One expert (33/1 odds)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)

8. Mark Rylance, “Dunkirk”: (33/1 odds)

9. Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: One expert (66/1 odds)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)

10. Ray Romano, “The Big Sick” (66/1 odds)

PREDICT the Oscar nominees now; change them until January 23

2018 Oscars Best Supporting Actor: Experts Predictions

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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