Best Picture Oscar predictions by experts: ‘Dunkirk’ keeps lead but ‘The Post,’ ‘Darkest Hour’ are gaining

Eleven of our 25 Oscar experts derived from major media outlets are predicting that “Dunkirk” will win Best Picture this year. Another seven are backing “The Post” while two apiece favor “Darkest Hour” and “The Shape of Water.” “The Florida Project” and “Mudbound” each has one vote.

“Mudbound” debuted at Sundance, “Dunkirk” was a huge hit this summer, “Darkest Hour,” “The Florida Project” and “The Shape of Water” wowed festival crowds in recent weeks, and “The Post” has yet to screen.

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:

1. “Dunkirk” : 11 experts (11/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (

2. “The Post”: Seven experts (8/1 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

3. “Darkest Hour”: Two experts (8/1 odds)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

4. “The Shape of Water”: Two experts (9/1 odds)
Matthew Jacob (Huffington Post)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)

5. “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (10/1 odds)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

6. “Get Out”: (10/1 odds)

7. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: (10/1 odds)

8. “The Florida Project”: One expert (18/1 odds)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times

9. “Phantom Thread”: (20/1 odds)

10. “Mudbound”: One expert (20/1 odds)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

2018 Oscars Best Picture: Experts Predictions

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Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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