Best Picture Oscar predictions by experts: ‘Dunkirk’ barely ahead of ‘The Post’ as race heats up

Following the New York and Los Angeles critics awards, our 26 Oscar experts from major media outlets have been busy updating their Best Picture predictions. Longtime frontrunner “Dunkirk” has seen its lead cut by one-third, with only eight experts now predicting Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic to prevail. That is down from an even dozen a week ago. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

A half dozen of our Oscar prognosticators are now backing Steven Spielberg‘s docudrama “The Post,” which chronicles the fight by the Washington Post to publish papers related to the Vietnam War. It swept the National Board of Review awards, winning Best Picture and both lead acting awards for Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks who portray publisher Katharine Graham and editor Ben Bradlee respectively.

Our other dozen experts are split among seven films. Three were wowed by Martin McDonagh‘s character study”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Two experts apiece liked Greta Gerwig’s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird,” which won top prize at the NYFCC. Another two are enamored with Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name,” which was the big winner at LAFCA. And another two are taken by Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out.”

Three films have one vote each: Joe Wright‘s biopic “Darkest Hour”; Sean Baker‘s family drama “The Florida Project”; and Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water.”

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:

1. “Dunkirk”: Eight experts (13/2 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Susan Wloszczyna (

2. “The Post”: Six experts (7/1 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Chris Rosen (EW)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)

3. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: Three experts (8/1 odds)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)

4. “Call Me By Your Name”: Two experts (17/2 odds)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

5. “Lady Bird”: Two experts (17/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

6. “The Shape of Water”: One expert (9/1 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)

7. “Get Out”: Two experts (10/1 odds)
Matthew Jacob (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (14/1 odds)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)

9. “The Florida Project”: One expert (18/1 odds)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times

10. “Mudbound”: (33/1 odds)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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