2018 Screen Actors Guild Awards: Oscar preview again?

The Oscar frontrunners in the four acting races — leads Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) and Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) as well as supporting players Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”) and Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”) — all reaped SAG Awards nominations. Does this make them unstoppable at these precursor prizes then? Not so fast.

The Screen Actors Guild, which numbers more than 121,000, has been bestowing competitive awards since 1994. Despite the actors branch making up 20% of the Oscar voters, only two-thirds of SAG champs have won over the academy as well. Compare that to the 90% success rate of the Directors Guild of America at presaging which helmer will prevail at the Oscars.

Over its first 23 years, this awardsfest has handed out 92 trophies to performers. The SAG choices have forecast the Academy Awards winners just 65 times — 67 if you count Benicio del Toro, who won in lead at SAG in 2000 for “Traffic” and supporting at the Oscars and Kate Winslet who did the reverse, winning supporting at SAG in 2008 for “The Reader” and lead at the Oscars.

SEE 2018 SAG Awards nominations: Full list of Screen Actors Guild Awards nominees

Here is the year-by-year breakdown of how many SAG individual winners repeated at the Oscars.

1994: 3 out of 4
1995: 2 out of 4
1996: 3 out of 4
1997: 4 out of 4 (Kim Basinger and Gloria Stuart tied in supporting)
1998: 2 out of 4
1999: 3 out of 4
2000: 2 out of 4 (Del Toro in different categories)
2001: 1 out of 4
2002: 1 out of 4
2003: 3 out of 4
2004: 4 out of 4
2005: 3 out of 4
2006: 3 out of 4
2007: 2 out of 4
2008: 3 out of 4 (Winslet in different categories)
2009: 4 out of 4
2010: 4 out of 4
2011: 3 out of 4
2012: 3 out of 4
2013: 4 out of 4
2014: 4 out of 4
2015: 3 out of 4
2016: 3 out of 4

 

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