AFI Top 10: American Film Institute has stellar track record predicting Oscar Best Picture nominations

On Thursday (Dec. 8), the American Film Institute released its list of the top 10 homegrown films of 2017: “The Big Sick,” “Call Me By Your Name,” “Dunkirk,” “The Florida Project,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and “Wonder Woman.” All but the latter number among our 10 frontrunners for Best Picture at the Oscars.

The AFI has a strong track record at previewing the Best Picture line-up at the Oscars. Since the academy expanded that category in 2009, the AFI has previewed 58 of the 65 nominees that were American-made; that translates into a staggering 90% success rate.

SEE AFI Top 10 TV programs of 2017: Emmy champs ‘The Handmaid’s Tale,’ ‘Big Little Lies’ win again

The AFI missed these seven domestic productions that went on to make the cut with the academy:

2009: “Avatar” and “Inglourious Basterds”
2012: “Django Unchained”
2013: “Dallas Buyers Club”
2014: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
2015 : “The Revenant”
2016: “Hidden Figures”

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The AFI does not honor foreign-made films and seven of them have reaped Best Picture bids at the Academy Awards in the last eight years. Two of these — “The King’s Speech” (2010) and “The Artist” (2011) — won the top prize. The other five imports that impressed academy members were:

2012: “Amour”
2013: “Philomena”
2014: “The Theory of Everything”
2015: “Brooklyn”
2016: “Lion”

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The AFI jury is comprised of scholars, film and television artists, critics and AFI Trustees. Members consider the following criteria when determining the honor roll of 10 American films:

Best advance the art of the moving image;
enhance the rich cultural heritage of America’s art form;
inspire audiences and artists alike; and
make a mark on American society.

PREDICT Oscar nominations now; change them till Jan. 23

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.