Alec Baldwin (‘SNL’) isn’t a lock at the Emmys, and here’s why [WATCH]

“I don’t think [Alec Baldwin] is as safe as [‘SNL’ co-star Kate McKinnon] is,” says Gold Derby editor Chris Beachum about the Emmy race for Best Comedy Supporting Actor. “You’ve got [Tituss Burgess], who has not won before and is going to have a great episode to submit. Then you’ve got the three most recent winners: Louie Anderson, Tony Hale and Ty Burrell potentially in there, so we know voters like them a lot.” Watch Beachum discuss the hotly contested race above with fellow editors Marcus James Dixon and Daniel Montgomery.

“I think Tituss Burgess had his best season yet,” Dixon points out about the scene-stealer from Netflix’s “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt.” “He was in so much of it that he could even legitimately go lead. That’s how important he was to the story … and he has the ‘Lemonade‘ episode — if tapes matter, he could win for that.”

Dixon is referring to the “Kimmy’s Roommate Lemonades!” episode, in which Titus suspects his boyfriend is cheating on him, prompting him to express his anger and heartbreak in the style of Beyonce. The impact of episode submissions at the Emmys is in question since the TV academy opened up voting to the entire actors branch rather than small judging panels. But “Lemonades” was the second episode of the season, which could help Burgess anyway. As Montgomery explains, “If voters are only watching the first few then they’ll see it … We’ve seen that happen: I remember with the ‘Arrested Development’ reboot on Netflix we saw people from the first episode or two get in, and then nothing else.”

Burgess has yet to win despite two previous nominations, so it’s important for us to also keep a close eye on the category’s proven winners. 2016’s winner Anderson was the first winner in the category under the new voting system that ditched ranked ballots for a simple plurality vote, so we already know that voting shakeup has worked out well for him. And Hale, who won in 2013 and 2015, co-stars in the two-time reigning champ for Best Comedy Series, “Veep,” so one can never count him out.

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