Best Costume Design head-scratcher: Statistics favor ‘Jackie,’ but Oscar experts predict ‘La La Land’

According to Gold Derby’s current racetrack odds, “La La Land” is on pace to claim nine golden statues on Oscar night, including Best Costume Design. With leading odds of 10/11 from our Oscar experts, I can’t help but wonder: Why are so many people convinced “La La Land” will win this category when there is a particularly strong case to be made for “Jackie” pulling an upset here? The other films nominated for their flashy garments are “Allied,” “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” and “Florence Foster Jenkins.”

How to buy products that appear in the Oscar gift bag

The victories for “Jackie” started with the Critics’ Choice Awards, which have only been handing out kudos for costumes since 2009. On the surface, it may cause skepticism that the Critics’ Choice is relatively new to recognizing this category. But the reality is that every single Critics’ Choice costume winner has gone on to claim the same category at the Oscars. That’s right, they have a staggering 100% accuracy rate. Not only did “Jackie” win there, but it prevailed over all four of its current Oscar rivals.

These five films faced off again at the BAFTA Awards, with “Jackie” once again coming out victorious. Similarly, BAFTA has lined up with the Oscar winner every year since 2008. Granted, prior to 2008 BAFTA had a sketchy track record in this category, but that is a pretty convincing recent history that spans nearly a decade.

Four Purse-Sized Staples to Get You Through Awards Season

But just as it seemed so clear that “Jackie” was unstoppable, the Costume Designers’ Guild Awards (CDG) had to muddy the waters. “Jackie” lost for Excellence in Costume Design for a Period Film to “Hidden Figures,” which isn’t even nominated at the Oscars. Meanwhile, “La La Land” prevailed at CDG for Excellence in Costume Design for a Contemporary Film. But it must be noted that since this award was first handed out in 1999, not a single Contemporary Film winner at CDG has gone on to win the Oscar.

So who will win on Sunday night? Currently 16 Gold Derby experts are picking “La La Land” while just 10 think “Jackie” will prevail. “Florence Foster Jenkins” (two experts) and “Fantastic Beasts” (one expert) have small support, and none are predicting a victory for “Allied.”

Predict the Oscar winners now; change them till February 26

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

More News from GoldDerby