Best Picture Oscar predictions by experts: ‘Dunkirk’ stays ahead of ‘The Post’

Almost half of our 25 Oscar experts from major media outlets are predicting that “Dunkirk” will win Best Picture this year. Twelve of them expect Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic to take the top prize at the 90th annual Academy Awards. A half dozen of our Oscar prognosticators are backing Steven Spielberg‘s docudramaThe Post,” which chronicles the fight by the Washington Post to publish papers related to the Vietnam War.

Of the remaining seven experts: two like the looks of Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water”; one is enamored by Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name”; one gives the victory sign to Joe Wright‘s biopic “Darkest Hour”; one shines a light on Sean Baker‘s “The Florida Project”; one is stuck on Dee Rees‘ heartfelt drama “Mudbound; and one was wowed by Martin McDonagh‘s character study”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:

1. “Dunkirk”: 12 experts (11/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (

2. “The Post”: Six experts (8/1 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)

3. “The Shape of Water”: Two experts (9/1 odds)
Matthew Jacob (Huffington Post)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)

4. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (9/1 odds)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)

5. “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (9/1 odds)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

6. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: One expert (10/1 odds)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

7. “Get Out”: (12/1 odds)

8. “The Florida Project”: One expert (14/1 odds)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times

9. “Lady Bird”: (16/1 odds)

10. “Mudbound”: One expert (28/1 odds)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

2018 Oscars Best Picture: Experts Predictions

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Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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