Best Picture Oscar predictions by experts: ‘Dunkirk’ still leads but ‘The Post,’ ‘Darkest Hour’ are gaining

Our 24 Oscar experts derived from major media outlets are predicting that one of these six films will win Best Picture this year: “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” “The Florida Project,” “Mudbound,” “The Post,” or “The Shape of Water.” All but “The Post” have screened already.

“Mudbound” debuted at Sundance, “Dunkirk” was a huge hit this summer and “Darkest Hour,” “The Florida Project” and “The Shape of Water” have been wowing the festival crowds in recent weeks.

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the top eight races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other seven categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:

1. “Dunkirk” : 11 experts (11/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (

2. “The Post”: Six experts (8/1 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

3. “Darkest Hour”: Two experts (9/1 odds)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

4. “The Shape of Water”: Two experts (10/1 odds)
Matthew Jacob (Huffington Post)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)

5. “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (10/1 odds)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

6. “Get Out”: (14/1 odds)

7. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: (16/1 odds)

8. “Phantom Thread”: (20/1 odds)

9. “Mudbound”: One expert (28/1 odds)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

10. “The Florida Project”: One expert (28/1 odds)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times

2018 Oscars Best Picture: Experts Predictions

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Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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