‘Big Brother’ 19 elimination predictions: Will Jillian Parker or Christmas Abbott be third player to leave the house?

We’re one full week into the new season of “Big Brother” and the tempting twists have already thrown the Season 19 houseguests for a loop. In just these initial seven days of the summer series we’ve already seen two players leave the house and five people nominated for eviction. So who will be the first player formally voted out on Thursday’s live eviction episode and who do you think is best positioned to win the game? Below I break down our early odds for the season — read my analysis and then update your own predictions in our season-long event.

To say the first week of play has been a whirlwind of nominees is an understatement. According to Jillian Parker she’s already been on the block four times this season — once on the first night against Cameron Heard and Christmas Abbott and then formally nominated by Head of Household Cody Nickson against Megan Lowder before she unceremoniously quit. Cody replaced Megan with Alex Ow who then won the Power of Veto, giving Cody the opportunity to backdoor Season 18 runner-up Paul Abrahamian. But before taking a seat on the block Paul revealed the prize of his temptation, the Pendant of Protection, a power of immunity saving him from eviction this week and for the next two. Unable to nominate Paul, Cody turned to Paul’s closest ally Christmas and put her up for the second time this season.

The results of that long train of nominees leaves Jillian and Christmas on the chopping block heading in to Thursday’s live eviction and one of them will become the third player to leave the house in 15th place. In our exclusive “Big Brother” odds Jillian is deemed more likely to be evicted with 3/1 odds compared to 14/1 for Christmas. Conventional “BB” wisdom says that Jillian is less of a threat in the game than Christmas, meaning she’s safe as Cody’s pawn nominee this week, but because she has more allies in the house Christmas could get the votes to stay. HOH Cody would like to see Christmas go, and hopes to count the Couples Alliance (Elena Davis and Mark Jansen, Raven Walton and Matthew Clines, his boo Jessica Graf and then Dominique Cooper) among his numbers to vote her out. With 12 of the houseguests voting those six make up 50% of the votes, but they’ll need one more to get their way.

Cody’s dominance so early in the game, whether he gets his way with this eviction or not, has vaulted him into a power position within the house. The core of his alliance sees him as their figurehead and will likely protect him for some time going forward. That’s why Cody is already one of our frontrunners to win with 10/1 odds. Despite his power, Cody trails both Ramses Soto and Matthew among early predictors. Ramses, the youngest player in the house this season, is our second most likely to win with 13/2 odds, just behind Matthew, Cody’s close ally, who leads with 10/3 odds.

In the 18 previous seasons, 12 men have prevailed and so far we’re expecting that dominance to continue. The women leading the charge this season are Alex, Christmas and Jessica, all of whom share 12/1 odds of winning just behind our top three men. Do you think this season will be another male-dominated game? There’s a lot of summer left to play so anything can happen. Sound off in the comments about your own early predictions and let us know which houseguest is your favorite!

Who will win ‘Big Brother’? See exclusive odds

Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts throughout the week, just click “Save” when you’ve settled on your choices. You’ll compete to win bragging rights and a $100 Amazon gift certificate. Be sure to read our contest rules and sound off on the season of “Big Brother” in our reality TV forum. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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